Just how effective will Steelers RB Najee Harris be as a rookie?

Improvement of the Steelers running game

Looking at the stats, and this one shouldn’t surprise anyone: taking a running back in the first round tends to improve the rushing game for an offense. This shouldn’t be shocking, as teams’ first-round picks are more often than not expected to make an instant impact. This stands true with teams that have taken a running back in the first round, as they get those players on the field early and expect instant results.

The Steelers, thus, should expect that jump in the run game with Harris at the helm. Specifically, if this follows the averages that were put in place from this study, the team’s total rushing output should increase by 300 rushing yards. This means expect the Steelers to have around 1650 rushing yards, as it would be a 300-yard increase from what the team had in 2020. As a reference, that would put the team 25th overall in team rushing.

For those estimating what Harris’s stat line will look like his rookie year, a history-based number would be around 1100 total yards and between 7-8 touchdowns. As well, expect Harris to miss at least a game, and likely two, as the running back position is one that deals with a large deal of injury due to the physical nature of the position. While that would be a fine rookie year, note that it wouldn’t suddenly launch the Steelers into the upper echelon of rushing teams.