Just how effective will Steelers RB Najee Harris be as a rookie?

Projected increase in wins for the Steelers

This was actually a surprising trend based on the teams that have selected running backs in the first round. Based on the study done, teams actually saw an average increase of 1.5 wins in the year following taking a rookie running back. For a Steelers team that won 12 games last season, winning an additional one to two games would have been huge.

That numbers should be taken for a grain of salt though. For starters, this only focuses on the addition of a first-round running back and has no other consideration to players added, subtracted, or the general strength of schedule for a team. As well, some of the biggest jumps that occurred came from teams that had extremely low records the year below. In those cases, it was hard to imagine that team doing any worse, as the only way for the team to go was up.

There were cases where having that first-round running back really did make the difference for the team during their rookie year. Those cases were Leonard Fournette (2017) and Ezekiel Elliott (2016), as both backs turned their teams from one of the worst in the league to a playoff team in one year. Elliot is truly the unique case, as while Fournette was great year one, the Jaguars as a whole were built around running as evident by the fact that he only accounted for half the rushing yards of the team that season. So, in essence, Elliot in his rookie season was the only prospect that made the team good enough to make a playoff run.

So, the question becomes two-fold. For starters, is Harris a good enough prospect to be that difference maker that Elliot was his rookie season? While he certainly should be good, Elliot was a far better prospect coming out of Ohio St. The next question is then, is Harris good enough to make up for the losses the Steelers suffered this offseason? While he will undoubtedly make the rushing offense better, it seems unlikely that he is enough to overcome the losses the team saw this offseason. The Steelers could still make the playoffs, but it seems unlikely Harris improves their overall record.