Just how effective will Steelers RB Najee Harris be as a rookie?

Steelers’ Super Bowl hopes

Finally, the goal of every team every year is to reach and win a Super Bowl. Despite the losses this team suffered in the offseason, the Steelers are still hoping to make it to, and win the Super Bowl. In the study done, only one first-round running back, Sony Michel, delivered a Super Bowl win to his original team. To this point, none of the first-round backs drafted since 2010 besides him have won a Super Bowl.

Looking at the Super Bowl backs themselves, only two running backs that have led their team in rushing and won the Super Bowl have been first-round picks. Michel was one, and the other was Marshawn Lynch, who won with the Seahawks and not his original drafting team (the Bills). There have been double the number of undrafted running backs that have led their team in rushing than first-round running backs to do so.

That doesn’t mean a team can’t just run the ball, but it means that it needs to be effective when it does it. All of those lead rushers averaged 850 yards between them in terms of what their rushing yards were that year. That means a team doesn’t need a Derrick Henry type of monster to get to the Super Bowl. In the modern NFL, an elite running back isn’t the recipe for Super Bowl success, it is an efficient one mixed in with a dominant passing game.

I didn’t write this to say that the Harris will be a bust with the Steelers, or that you even have to dislike the pick. These are the historical numbers; I’ve constructed my own opinion on the matter, and you can construct your own as well. Know that when anyone says that a running back in the first isn’t valuable, it is due to trends like these that point towards the devaluation of a first-round running back. I hope Harris kills it his rookie season for the team, but I’m doubtful that even if he does it translates to playoff and Super Bowl success based on these numbers.