The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, but that doesn’t mean Steelers’ rookie Harris doesn’t have a chance to win offensive rookie of the year.
Had this been about fifteen years ago, Steelers’ rookie running back Najee Harris would likely be the favorite to land rookie of the year. Since running backs usually got on the field early, the top running back taken in the draft always saw plenty of playing time in year one.
Times have changed though, as rookie quarterbacks take the field early and often and typically become the favorites to land the award. That doesn’t mean that Harris has no shot of winning the award, but he will need to have an incredible rookie season with the Steelers like some of the previous award winners have had.
A recent history of the winners
Since 2007, only five running backs have won the award. Two receivers have claimed the award while seven quarterbacks have won it during that time span. This means that, on paper, Harris has a decent chance to win the award besides quarterbacks, running backs have the next best shot to win. This is due to the typically quick transition running backs have, as the college and pro game are similar for running backs.
That said, it will be up to Harris to beat out a quarterback for the award. Harris is in a bad spot in that case, as the NFL saw five rookie quarterbacks get drafted in the first round this year. Now, not all of them will start instantly or set the league on fire, but that stiff competition certainly makes him lower on the odds to win the award. Following some trends though, Harris could certainly improve his odds of winning the award.
Rushing yards
Being dominant on the ground is key for any running back to be in contention for the award. Looking over the previous award winners, each running back was great at running the ball during their rookie season. Looking at the averages for the past five winners, a back would have to rush for 1132 yards in order to be on pace with what the previous winners have accomplished.
While averaging over 1000 yards was a common theme among these backs, Alvin Kamara was the only back who didn’t accomplish this feat despite still winning the award. He only rushed for 728 yards during his rookie year, but he averaged an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. While yards per carry isn’t the most important statistic, a 6.1-yard average off of 120 carries demonstrates just how effective Kamara was with the ball in his hands. Add in his work as a receiver, and he was a true weapon for the Saints offense despite not having an insane rushing yardage output.
On the flip side, Saquon Barkley and Adrian Peterson were the standards for successful rushing yards in their rookie seasons they had the two highest numbers, both posting rushing yards over 1300 yards. While that is a jump from the 1132 average, it isn’t a gigantic one. Considering Harris rushed for 1466 yards in his final college season, these rushing yards seem attainable assuming he stays healthy.
To put it in a vacuum, in order for Harris to hit that average number (accounting for the additional game added to the NFL season mind you), he will need to average just under 71 yards rushing a game for the Steelers. In order to be closer to that 1300 mark that Peterson and Barkley averaged, Harris only needs to average just under 82 yards per game. If he can stay healthy, there is a real chance that Harris gets rushing numbers close to those.
Other running back stats
While rushing yards are important, they are far from the only stats that matter. Being able to score and being able to catch the ball is vital for a modern NFL running back to succeed. Going back to Kamara, while he was dynamic on the ground, his 826 receiving yards are what won him the award. He wasn’t just a checkdown option, he was a true receiving threat that the Saints used as a receiver.
Kamara’s receiving yards may have been the most, but Barkley’s receiving total was arguably the most impressive. Despite rushing for over 1300 yards, he also added another 721 yards through the air. In a year where he was closely competing with top overall pick Baker Mayfield, the impressive ability of Barkley both on the ground and through the air gave him the ultimate advantage.
Finally, being able to score both on the ground and through the air can really give the advantage to a running back in rookie of the year voting. The average total touchdowns for an ORTY running back was 12.4, and no award-winning running back scored less than 10 times. Being able to find the endzone is critical if a running back wants to win the rookie of the year award.
Luckily for the Steelers and Harris, he can excel at both receiving and scoring. While his receiving ability seems to be a little overvalued right now (it seems unlikely that Harris spits out as an “X” receiver), he can certainly catch passes and serve as an effective receiving back. He notched 425 receiving yards last season which is on pace with the 452 yards average. Add in his 30 total scores last year and it seems likely that Harris can score during his rookie year with the Steelers. No, he won’t find the endzone 30 times his rookie year, but he could be around or even above that 12-13 touchdown average the past backs have been at.
Competition for the Steelers
Now, a great rookie running back season doesn’t mean a back will win the award. Jonathan Taylor had numbers all in line with this last year, but an impressive year from Justin Herbert swung the award to him. As well, a dominant receiver could win the award as was the case with Odell Beckham Jr. and Percy Harvin. Considering the talented receivers that were drafted in the first round and the myriad of quarterbacks added and will certainly be in contention for the award. Even fellow rookie running back Travis Ettienne could contend for the award considering his running and receiving threat.
On the surface though, both Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are the favorites to win the award. Both will be the starters by week one, and both have quite a few receiving targets to throw to. Lawrence in particular was one of the best quarterback prospects to come out since Andrew Luck and assuming he lives up to the hype he will likely run away with the award.
This doesn’t discount Justin Fields either, as he is the next likely starter of the rookies and has a good offense and defense around him with the Bears. In terms of receivers, the only real ORTY threat seems to be Jamar Chase, but he is entering a talented receiving room in his own right. Unless he really runs away and puts up a dominant season, it seems unlikely that he claims the award. As of now, the top competitors for the award are clearly Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields.
Honestly, the next most likely candidate is probably Harris. He will benefit from starting instantly and having a passing game to take some pressure off of him. That said, considering the slew of quarterbacks that were drafted that high, Harris will need a dominant season with the Steelers to win the award. If he can put up numbers similar to Barkley, he could hear his name called during the awards ceremony. That is certainly a tall task though, as Barkley was a generational talent. Does Harris have a chance to win the award with the Steelers? Sure, but as of now, he will need a nearly unstoppable year to get to that point.