Should Steelers consider college success when drafting a quarterback?

The Pittsburgh Steelers are very likely to draft a quarterback in 2022. How much stock should they put into their records as starters in college?

Mike Tomlin was not happy about having to skip Sam Howell’s Pro Day, but such is life when you’re required to attend the annual league meeting (this was some bad planning, by the way). Tomlin’s frustration — along with nearly every other sign — points to the Steelers grabbing a quarterback with their first selection in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Howell will host another workout, and Tomlin is expected to be in attendance for that one. Meanwhile, Kevin Colbert and Brandon Hunt got to watch Howell in action.

If you include Howell checking the box as a Pro Day visit with Colbert on hand, Pittsburgh has met with all five of the top quarterback prospects this year. In the process, they have neglected to scope out many first-round prospects projected to land in their draft range in the mid-first round.

Now that selecting a quarterback seems inevitable, it’s crucial that the Steelers find the right man for the job. I have spent dozens of hours over the past month alone trying to sort out this group of QBs, and it’s not easy. With second-round grades on all five of the top prospects, it essentially comes down to a matter of preference.

However, one interesting trait could be the deciding factor among this group: their college records.

While this might seem like a meaningless statistic, historic trends indicate that QBs who have become successful in the NFL almost always elevated the play of those around them in college to produce some very respectable records as starters.

Like every stat, this isn’t always the case, but it makes sense as to why. Legitimate NFL QB prospects should be men amongst boys out there. If they are going to be among the best in the business at the next level, they should be able to annihilate the competition at the collegiate level.

Obviously, there are a lot of factors that go into this, and the talent surrounding these quarterbacks and strength of schedule must be considered. However, here are the top six quarterback prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft and their records in college:

Let’s start from the top of this list. Malik Willis won a very respectable 73.9 percent of the games he started in college (albeit against non-Power Five competition). His 9-1 record as a starter in 2020 really put him on the map as a first-round candidate last season, and he could be the first QB off the board this April.

Matt Corral’s record as a starter in college is very underwhelming (17-14). However, what salvages this is the fact that he went 10-2 this year (excluding the final game against Baylor when he was injured early in the contest). This is the best record by an Ole Miss QB dating all the way back to 1972. In fact, only two other QBs earned 10 wins in a season over this time. Eli Manning was one of them.

In terms of record and win percentage, Sam Howell is the scariest of the group. He went just 20-17 as a starter in college (54.1%) and he was only 8-4 in his best season in 2020. It didn’t help that he took a step back this year. Carson Strong’s record was better (20-11), but he played against lesser competition, and his best season in 2020 was cut short due to COVID-19.

Kenny Pickett had an impressive college record despite only one good season of statistic production. As a four-year starter (five total seasons) at Pitt, Pickett went 32-19. His 11-2 season this year was thoroughly impressive and the best from a Pitt QB since 1981.

However, when it comes to college records, all of these QBs ail in comparison to Desmond Ridder. Starting from his freshman season all the way through his senior year, Ridder led Cincinnati to their best four-year stretch in team history dating all the way back to 1954 with an outstanding record of 44-4. While some would argue that he was a game-manager on a team with an elite defense, his ability to string together so many wins is still impressive.

Should Steelers factor college wins into QB evaluation?

Now comes the hard part. How much stock should the Steelers put into all of this? While a quarterback’s record in college is just a small slice of the pie in the evaluation process, it’s something that shouldn’t go unnoticed.

This is an extreme example, but consider Aaron Rodgers in college. As a two-year starter at California, he led an otherwise bad football team with very little NFL talent to a record of 18-7. Before Rodgers got there, this was a club that was winning 1-6 games per season from 1994 to 2001. A few years after Rodgers left, California reverted back to similar results without him.

Great quarterbacks elevate the play of the team around them and find ways to win football games. Does this mean that Desmond Ridder should be the first quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft? Not necessarily. It doesn’t even mean that the Steelers should be the team to pull the trigger on Ridder. But it’s hard to ignore his spectacular record altogether.

There are a plethora of factors that must be considered when evaluating a quarterback and choosing the player that will lead this team in the future. We know the Pittsburgh Steelers love a good winning mentality, and it will be interesting to see how much they factor in college success when choosing a quarterback — assuming they go that route.