The Steelers top-five most likely first round draft choices in 2022

It’s that time of year, a few days before the draft, we try to predict with certainty whom the Steelers will select with their 20th selection.

Having reviewed mock drafts, in this case, 350 going back to late December, and weighing the number of drafts examined to account for all of the pre-draft trades, we can get a realistic sense of which players the Steelers will draft when on the clock.

Last year, the same project predicted Najee Harris would fall to the Steelers. The prediction was spot on, and if you had compared the results to the NFL Mock data database, you would have found they came out nearly identical.

Of course, the sample size was only 100 mock drafts last year. This year, the sample size increased by 250, expanding to account for all 32 picks in the first round and tracking all 32 picks in 350 drafts, and taking into account potential trades.

The results may not be overly surprising; however, they might be disappointing depending on whether you hope the Steelers take a particular player with their 20th selection of this year’s draft. If you hope the Steelers avoid taking a quarterback, you will be very disappointed.

Last year many fans hoped Pittsburgh might opt for the offensive lineman instead of a running back; however, it worked out differently. To a large degree, the same thing will happen this year. The main difference is that Najee had an 18% chance of going to the Steelers compared to Jaylen Mayfield, who had an 11% chance. This year it’s much closer. So without further ado, who will the Steelers select in the  2022 draft?