2022 Steelers draft analysis: Colbert’s final draft ignores key needs
1st Round – Quarterback – Kenny Pickett
Pittsburgh – 6’-3”, 217 lbs.
There are a number of reasons I don’t like this pick. Some of the reasons don’t have anything to do with Kenny Pickett as a player. If he had been picked in the 2nd or 3rd Rd where his talent dictates, I’d be fine with the selection. As it is, I think he’s a reach and will only muddy what is already a muddy situation at quarterback.
I’ve watched a lot of game film on Pickett. I can’t see where he brings the team anything they don’t already have with Mitch Trubisky or Mason Rudolph. Pickett actually visited North Carolina when he was looking at colleges and Trubisky called him to welcome him should he come there. Pickett has said he modeled his game after Mitch’s senior year.
There is no particular area Pickett excels. He is a good thrower who can make all the NFL passes but he’s not a player who can change a game with his arm, alone. He is good at throwing on the run but tends to leave the pocket too quickly. He’s reasonably fast at processing the field, though he has a tendency to feel pressure when it’s not there. He tends to slide out of the pocket instead of stepping up and throwing. If he’s going to succeed as a pocket passer he’s going to have to play with more discipline.
His 20 career rushing touchdowns show he has some mobility but, again, he’s not going to a be game-changer with his legs. He doesn’t have a particular talent anyone can point to and say ‘There, he can win in the NFL with that’ nor does the sum of his parts show anything exceptional. The comp I’ve seen from some draft pundits is Andy Dalton and I’d tend to agree with that. I can also see similarities to Daniel Jones.
Pickett was a one-year wonder. Prior to 2021, he had back-to-back seasons where he threw for 13 TDs and had 9 interceptions. That was his highest single-season TD output. In 2021 he took the Covid mulligan to return to the Panthers. That proved to be a very good decision as he had the best season of his career, by far. He posted a 67.2% completion rate throwing for 4319 yards with 42 TDs and 7 interceptions.
Unlike the big years of Joe Burrow, who clearly showed he could win with his arm, and Josh Allen and Kyler Murray, who both showed they could throw and run. Nothing in Pickett’s game particularly stood out. It was also clear with those players that they hadn’t reached their ceilings. Pickett is a player who appears to have already maxed out his potential. My most optimistic projection is Pickett becomes a second-tier, mid-level starter. The low projection is journey man backup to total bust.
The final problem I see with this pick is the biggest one. Rather than keeping their options open at QB, the Steelers now have a major commitment. You can’t just throw a 1st Round pick to the wolves the way they did with Mason Rudolph.
Tomlin and the team are now tied to Pickett for the foreseeable future. Both Trubisky and Rudolph have reached out to Pickett to welcome him. That shows they’re both class acts but if I was them I’d already be making my travel plans. I can’t see anyone in the quarterback room actually being happy with this situation.
Coach Tomlin has already said Pickett will have a chance to compete for the starting job, immediately. If they shove him into the starting lineup before he is ready he will get eaten alive and his confidence will go down the chutes.
And so, begins the ‘wandering in the wilderness’ phase of Mike Tomlin’s career. The problem is we will have to wander with him. I give this pick an F for strategy, for value a D, and for the player, a C, and I’m trying to be optimistic.