Stats suggest Steelers don’t have a ‘checkdown’ QB in Mitch Trubisky

Buffalo Bills quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (10). Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Bills quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (10). Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Mitch Trubisky gets a bad rap for his lack of big-play ability, but here’s why stats suggest the Steelers quarterback rarely checks the ball down. 

I’ve heard every sort of knock imaginable on Mitch Trubisky. NFL analysts claim that he doesn’t make big plays and he has no ‘it’ factor to his game. One I’ve heard often is that Trubisky is a ‘checkdown’ quarterback — meaning he gets gunshy and too often checks the ball down underneath instead of looking to make the big play.

You might be surprised to learn that this actually isn’t the case at all. In a recent study, Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus collected data from each of the past two seasons to find out the ‘checkdown’ percentage of each quarterback in the NFL. Trubisky actually had the fourth-lowest checkdown percentage of all quarterbacks during this span.

According to Monson’s data, Trubisky checked the ball down just 14 times on 343 attempts over the past two seasons — giving him a checkdown rate of just 4.6 percent. Remarkably this ranks just ahead of his old Bills teammate, Josh Allen, as well as players like Patrick Mahomes (4.7%), Joe Burrow (5.3%), and Matthew Stafford (5.3%).

On the other side of the spectrum are players like Trevor Lawrence (11.3%), Derek Carr (9.5%), and Matt Ryan (9.3%) who actually check the ball down at an alarming rate.

Throwing checkdown passes isn’t always a bad thing, as this is often a way for quarterbacks to escape a bad play (like a sack or interceptable pass) and still be able to gain positive yardage. However, higher checkdown passes are generally associated with a more conservative playstyle on the field.

Steelers might have a playmaker after all

We don’t know at the moment who the starting quarterback will be for the Pittsburgh Steelers to begin the 2022 season. What we do know is that this is a job that will soon go to rookie Kenny Pickett, as the team didn’t draft a QB with the 20th overall pick to have him watch from the sidelines.

If Mitch Trubisky does win the job out of training camp, however, perhaps the results won’t be as bad as many fans anticipate. This low checkdown rate may not have been the same during his time with the Bears (I would have to do some research on that). Perhaps losing his starting job despite being the former second overall pick was the kick in the pants he needed to be more aggressive.

Equally as impressive is Trubisky’s third-down checkdown percentage of just 2.8 percent. According to Monson’s research, Trubisky has checked the ball down just 2 times on 84 third-down attempts since the 2020 season.

Compare this to Mason Rudolph — a true gunshy QB in every sense of the word. Rudolph led all NFL quarterbacks with a whopping 18.8 percent of his total passes being labeled as checkdowns on third down. This is obviously not what you want to see when you are trying to move the chains.

There’s no telling how many starts (if any) Mitch Trubisky will earn for the Steelers in 2022, but at least we can take confidence in learning that he’s not a quarterback who is simply going to check the ball down underneath. At this point, Trubisky knows he needs to be aggressive in order to stick around and earn another shot at being an NFL starter. Let’s hope it works out.

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