The Pittsburgh Steelers must improve offensively if they want to make a run this year. Here are my offensive ranking predictions for the 2022 season.
Last year was a bit of a flukey season for the Pittsburgh Steelers. On paper, they certainly didn’t seem like a team that would finish with a 9-7-1 record as their rankings on both sides of the football suggest they never should have been in the playoff hunt. When they did make the tournament, Ben Roethlisberger and company failed to capitalize on the opportunity.
This year, we are hoping for better results. It’s entirely possible that the Steelers could be a better team statistically this year and still not earn as good of a record as they saw last season. However, taking a step in the right direction on offense could be the key to making this a successful season. Here are my stat predictions for the Steelers offense in 2022:
Steelers rushing offense
2021 rank: 30th
2022 prediction: 26th
Last year, the Steelers finished 30th in the NFL in rushing offense with just 91.1 yards per game, according to Team Rankings. Even worse, they were dead last in rushing yards per attempt. While the plan was to pound the rock often with Najee Harris, they were actually less efficient on the ground last year than they were with James Conner in 2020.
A lot of this has to do with the offensive line, but things aren’t looking so promising. Though I do think the Steelers running game should improve a bit this year, it’s going to come down to how well the OL blocks. I can see the Steelers abandoning the run at times because it might not be working.
Steelers passing offense
2021 rank: 15th
2022 rank: 18th
The Steelers weren’t a very efficient passing offense last season, but they did finish 15th in the NFL in passing yards with 221.1 per game, via Team Rankings. I think the Steelers would like to have a bit more of a balanced approach this year and with uncertainty at the quarterback position, I can see the passing offense possibly taking a step back this year.
While the team might be more efficient pushing the ball down the field, I can’t see Trubisky and Pickett combining for 664 passing attempts like they had in 2021 with Roethlisberger. I think Matt Canada would love to bring that number down. I have the passing offense finishing 18th this year.
Steelers points per game
2021 rank: 21st
2022 prediction: 19th
The Steelers were just 21st in the NFL in points per game last season with 20.2 per contest. This was a whopping 10 points away from the Dallas Cowboys who led the league in 2021. It’s remarkable that Pittsburgh was able to get to a 9-7-1 record with such a low-scoring output.
There’s a scenario where this team could be even worse in this department in 2022, but I’m going to predict that they improve slightly here. I think we could see some crazy inconsistencies from their offense week to week, but their overall potential should be a bit higher this season.
Steelers yards per game
2021 rank: 23rd
2022 prediction: 20th
When it comes to total offensive yards per game, the Steelers finished 23rd in the NFL last season — below teams like Seattle, Washington, and Detroit. They weren’t exactly in good company here. Much of their success here is going to fall on the shoulders of the quarterback, and it’s hard to say how many starts Mitch Trubisky will have this season.
I do think that either Trubisky or Kenny Pickett shouldn’t have any issues surpassing Roethlisberger’s 6.2 yards per attempt last season. A slightly more efficient offense could lead to an increase in yards per game, but don’t expect them to finish near the top of the league in this department.
Steelers offensive DVOA
2021 rank: 25th
2022 prediction: 22nd
Football Outsiders measures DVOA or defensive-adjusted value over average. A team’s total offensive DVOA is determined by taking every single play throughout the season and comparing them to a ‘league average’ play. There’s a much more detailed explanation here.
DVOA is a good way to measure how good a team really was compared to others around the league. Sadly, the Steelers were just 25th in offensive DVOA last season. I can see that improving in 2022, but probably not getting back up to the league average.
Overall, I’m very hesitant to say that the Pittsburgh Steelers could be as much an average NFL offense during the season. It’s going to take a joint effort by the offensive line and competent quarterback play to do so. However, I do think that this unit could improve a bit pretty much all around from the one we saw in 2021.