The Pittsburgh Steelers will certainly have their work cut out for them this week. Here are some pivotal matchups Mike Tomlin must focus on vs the Bills.
I don’t think even the most optimistic fans are expecting the Pittsburgh Steelers to escape Buffalo with a win today. For the first time since the NFL merger, the Steelers are 14-point underdogs, so oddsmakers clearly aren’t buying their chances this week.
Part of the reason for this has to do with how these teams match up. Pittsburgh has some daunting tasks ahead of them, and it stands to reason that Josh Allen will have much more success against a banged-up Steelers secondary than Kenny Pickett will have in his first start on the road against an elite defense that is first in the NFL in yards allowed and second in points surrendered, via Team Rankings.
There are a few matchups that could ultimately decide the outcome of this game. Unfortunately, each of these heavily favors the Bills. It’s going to take some outstanding game planning by Mike Tomlin and the coaching staff as well as flawless execution to get the best of Buffalo this week. Here are the biggest matchups to watch as the Steelers face the Bills on the road:
Von Miller vs Dan Moore Jr.
The Steelers must go into this game knowing that they need to give Von Miller the ‘Myles Garrett treatment.’ Matt Canada needs to make sure that there is a tight end or running back chipping Miller at all times. Pittsburgh was able to do a good job containing Garrett in Week 3, but it didn’t come without significant resources allocated to helping Dan Moore.
Moore has pretty clearly been the weakest link of the Steelers offensive line so far, and the team can’t expect a clean pocket if they leave a player as talented as Von Miller on an island with him. The problem is that Buffalo has great pass-rushers all around their roster with players like Miller, Gregory Rousseau, Boogie Basham, and A.J. Epenesa. This isn’t even counting the interior guys like Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, or Jordan Phillips. Still, Miller needs to be the top player they target.
Steelers secondary vs Bills wide receivers
This could be a disaster — especially when you consider the current state of the Steelers secondary. Mike Tomlin already said that CB Ahkello Witherspoon won’t be available this week. That means that Levi Wallace and Arthur Maulet are once again going to be asked to play more snaps. Neither has been very good so far this season.
In addition to missing their top cornerback, both safeties — Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and Terrell Edmunds (concussion) — did not practice on Wednesday. Even if they return in time for the game, they could be rusty and not fully up to speed. When going against receivers like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Pittsburgh needs a healthy secondary playing at full force.
Kenny Pickett vs top-tier pass-rush
This might be the biggest matchup to watch in the Steelers vs Bills game this week. We know that Pittsburgh isn’t going to stand a chance in this contest unless Kenny Pickett is able to do much more with the offense than we have seen from Mitch Trubisky in the first three-and-a-half games. Pickett did score 14 second-half points against the Jets, but can he continue on that pace against the Bills?
As mentioned, Buffalo has an elite pass rush. This unit is the 2nd-best DVOA defense in the NFL, and they are 6th in sacks. Because the ball has to come out so quickly, opposing quarterbacks have been able to pass for just 150.8 yards per game so far. Pickett is going to have to have much more productive than this if the Steelers want to stay in this game, so reading the defense quickly and delivering an accurate ball will be a must. He’s going to get hit often.
The Steelers really do have their work cut out for them in a few nightmarish matchups this week. We will see if they are able to rise to the occasion against a very talented team on the road in Week 5.