Stop me if you heard this before: the Pittsburgh Steelers are set to enter a must-win game in December. Since taking over as the team's head coach back in 2007, Mike Tomlin has always had meaningful games this time of year with something to play for.
Unfortunately, there have been few games entering Week 14 more important for Tomlin than this.
The Steelers sit on a 6-6 record after falling to the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. Fortunately, the Baltimore Ravens also botched a golden opportunity to pull ahead in the AFC North last Sunday. Here's the scary part: Week 14 means more for the Steelers than it does for the Ravens.
According to the latest playoff odds from NFL.com's Ali Bhanpuri, the Steelers currently have a 31percent chance to make the postseason ahead of their Week 14 matchup against the Ravens. This would swing dramatically in their favor to a 62 percent chance with a win, but a loss would result in Pittsburgh plummeting to just a 15 percent chance of cracking the postseason.
Meanwhile, the Ravens—despite also having just a 6-6 record—have a 69 percent chance to make the playoffs. This will increase to an 84 percent chance if they beat the Steelers this week, or could decrease to a 38 percent chance of making the postseason with a loss.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are already in must-win territory in Week 14 against the Baltimore Ravens
While the AFC appears to be at one of its weakest points we've seen in years, it also happens to be extremely crowded in the Wild Card race. All three teams currently on track for Wild Card spots—the LA Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, and Buffalo Bills—each have 8-4 records entering Week 14. This doesn't even include the 7-5 Houston Texans, who are currently ahead of the Steelers in the standings.
To make matters worse, of these teams, the Steelers only hold a tiebreaker over the Colts. This means that, not only would the Steelers need to finish the season with a better record than the Bills or Chargers to take their place for a Wild Card seed, as they sit two games back with a month left of the season, this scenario is highly unlikely.
This means that the Steelers' only realistic avenue to the playoffs is through their own division... and Week 14 against the Ravens is essentially a playoff matchup.
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If the Steelers can emerge victorious on the road in Baltimore, they will be in the driver's seat in the AFC North and technically would control their own destiny in the final month of the season.
However, a loss would pulverize Pittsburgh's playoff chances. This would give them just a 15 percent chance of making the tournament, and they may be forced to win out to give themselves a chance.
There's a scenario where the Steelers can lose this Sunday against the Ravens and still make the playoffs. Unfortunately, this would almost certainly require a win against the Ravens in their Week 18 season finale and for Baltimore to mess up one of their last three matchups (Bengals, Patriots, or Packers) while the Steelers would need to be spotless the rest of the way.