After leading the NFL with 19.0 sacks last season and finishing second place in Defensive Player of the Year voting to Myles Garrett in 2023, nobody should be surprised to see that T.J. Watt is a frontrunner DPOY candidate this year. What is surprising, however, are the runaway odds we are witnessing from the Steelers star.
Though the Steelers are a 10-3 football team en route to their best season since Ben Roethlisberger was with the club, Watt hasn't been the same dominant X-Factor he has been in years past. In fact, he's been downright quiet at times.
This isn't all his fault. Watt remains in a tier of his own as the most frequently chipped player in the NFL after Week 14, according to Pro Football Focus. The All-Pro edge rusher is being chipped on 32.74 percent of pass-rush snaps. In total, Watt has been chipped 146 times — notching him well above the 90 chips Garrett has received this year.
But a chip percentage alone shouldn't be enough to run away from the competition.
Watt has earned 9.5 sacks in his first 13 games, but he hasn't been beating his blockers consistently. After Week 14, Watt ranks 40th in pressures and 47th in pass-rush win rate. But he doesn't need to have elite analytics to earn runaway DPOUY odds.
Entering Week 15, Watt is the odds-on favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award with -220 odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. In a distant second place is Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II with +900 odds, followed by Myles Garrett (+1500). Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Chirs Jones, and Xavier McKinney are all tied for fourth with long-shot odds of +1700.
Steelers fans are endorsing a another DPOY candidate
Nobody should be claiming that T.J. Watt doesn't deserving of at a second Defensive Player of the Year award in his legendary career. With a Hall of Fame resume, it's surprising that Watt doesn't have at least two DPOY trophies by now.
We can understand if Watt is the frontrunner for the award this year, but his phenomenally high odds put pretty much every other defender out of reach. When I posted the DPOY odds on "X', dozens of fans chimed in to share their thoughts.
Steelers fans (who admittedly love Watt) showed their support for another fan favorite who somehow isn't even in the running this year: Cameron Heyward.
Like Watt, the 35-year-old defensive lineman is part of one of the league's best defenses this year, but Heyward is having a career season from a statistical standpoint. The veteran has recorded eight sacks in 13 games while batting down eight passes. Fans also advocated for Heyward to be a top DPOY candidate this year thanks to his ability to beat double teams and his stout performance defending against the run.
In all honesty, the all-around competition for the DPOY award is quite weak this year. Watt's biggest competition, Lions' EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, suffered a season-ending injury early in the year. Meanwhile, Chris Jones is on a great team with very little raw production while players like Myles Garrett and Dexter Lawrence are having great seasons but are on terrible football teams with bad defenses.
We don't have much longer to see how this thing will play out, but it looks like T.J. Watt is going to run away with the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2024.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.