The Pittsburgh Steelers and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith got their guy with Jonnu Smith in Monday’s trade with Miami. The new tight end is coming off a career year with the Miami Dolphins, and now his former coach wants to cash in with a wide-open offense in 2025.
The expectation is that Jonnu Smith will play a slot tight end role in Pittsburgh. Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington can handle the in-line stuff, and Smith saw 111 total targets in 2024, so he’s ready for a big workload as a receiver.
Whether that makes him the No. 2 pass-catching option in the offense is up for debate, but given the current structure, it would certainly appear to be the case.
Target volume suggests Jonnu Smith will be a central figure in the Pittsburgh Steelers' 2025 passing attack
That seems rather in line with what Arthur Smith would like to see from his long-time pet project. In four years in Tennessee, Smith saw his targets moderately increase each season. When the Smiths came together in Atlanta in 2023, Jonnu saw the largest target share of his career up to that point with 70, which ranked fourth on the team. Last season, only Tyreek Hill saw more targets in Miami’s offense.
Jonnu Smith will turn 30 in August, but it does seem like he’s hitting his stride. And with the confidence Arthur Smith has shown for him throughout his career, he should be in line for a significant role in Pittsburgh’s offense.
How much of a workload can Smith expect in Pittsburgh? Well, of the 460 targets in the 2024 offense, 235 return this season. George Pickens accounted for 103 of those targets. Rodgers can still sling the ball around, and the offensive coordinator suggested the team will throw the ball much more this season. Last year, Rodgers threw 584 passes.
That’s a significant gap, but it only opens up about 100 targets in Pittsburgh’s offense if they throw the ball at the same volume.
Pittsburgh Steelers' target share begins to take shape
So, let’s look through the target priorities: DK Metcalf will no doubt lead the team in targets. He saw 108 last year, a career-low since his rookie season. The last time he played 17 games, he saw 141 targets. Let’s mark him down for 120. Smith should see about 110, as he did last year.
Then Freiermuth, who saw 78 last year. He should get somewhere between 90-100. Then it’s a toss-up between Jaylen Warren and Calvin Austin. Warren saw 47 targets last year to Austin’s 58, but if Warren is the lead back all season, he could creep closer to his career high of 74 from 2023 (Breece Hall saw 76 last year in New York).
Austin is due to see more targets as the No. 2 wideout on the depth chart, but his ceiling feels closer to 75 while the floor is around 60, particularly with Rodgers. The rest of the crew of Darnell Washington, Kaleb Johnson, and Roman Wilson fall in line to pick up the scraps.
Here’s a rough estimate of the target share based on what we know, with Rodgers throwing 550 passes in 2025 and assuming a healthy cast of receivers:
Pittsburgh Steelers' projected target distribution for 2025 season
- DK Metcalf - 120 targets
- Jonnu Smith - 110 targets
- Pat Freiermuth - 95 targets
- Calvin Austin - 60 targets
- Jaylen Warren - 60 targets
- Everyone else - 105 targets up for grabs
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Truth be told, that’s not a bad setup. Rodgers had five weapons receive 60+ targets last year in New York, though no player with fewer than 60 targets received more than 30. The conservative estimations here could allow this quintet of weapons in Pittsburgh to see roughly the same type of production.
Of course, we’ll have to see it all in action. Arthur Smith could very well force-feed Smith to an even greater degree than he did in Atlanta. That might not be a bad thing. He scored eight touchdowns last year and averaged 10 yards per catch, which is actually lower than every season he spent in an Arthur Smith offense.
For all of the scepticism that comes with this trade, the offensive side seems to have gotten what it needed in Smith. Depending on how the team feels about Austin, there might be room to improve out wide. But overall, the addition of Smith does seem like a great move for Pittsburgh.