By the skin of their teeth (or rather a Tyler Loop missed field), the Pittsburgh Steelers are entering the NFL Playoffs. On Monday night, Mike Tomlin's No. 4 seed Steelers will host the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium. While Pittsburgh snuck past Baltimore in a bizarre 26-24 win, Tomlin might not find as favorable results in the Wild Card round.
The Steelers found a way to fight back against the Ravens with a strong second-half performance. By the end of the game, Tomlin's team won the turnover battle while finishing ahead of the Ravens in first downs (24-12), total yards (390 to 359), and time of possession (34:11 to 25:49).
But one glaring problem still plagues the Steelers as they prepare to host the Texans: Tomlin's fatal philosophy flaw.
The Pittsburgh Steelers could be limited in the playoffs by Mike Tomlin's flawed winning philosophy
Tomlin's plan is simple: run the football effectively, win the takeaway battle, and don't give the football away. Sounds easy enough, right?
This is a philosophy that has historically worked against most average to below-average opponents (like the Baltimore Ravens, who finished the season with an 8-9 record). But when you get into the postseason, Tomlin's plan has fallen flat.
Against quality teams, the Steelers can't afford to be conservative with the football. To find offensive success and put up points against an elite defense like the Texans, Pittsburgh will have to take more risks. This includes throwing the ball over the middle of the field and taking shots down the seam—two things Tomlin doesn't like to do.
For most of the season, the Steelers have gotten away with routinely dumping the ball off to Kenneth Gainwell or Jonnu Smith in the flats. But these low-upside plays won't work against
In conjunction with Tomlin's conservative game plan, Aaron Rodgers finished the season ranked 37th in intended air yards per pass attempt (6.0), 38th in completed air yards per completion (3.7), and 37th in completed air yards per pass attempt (2.4), per advanced stats from Pro Football Reference—all among quarterbacks who threw the ball at least 185 times this season.
While checking the ball down to the flats and throwing toward the sideline can work against average teams, this is a philosophy that has killed the Steelers in the postseason... and there's a reason Mike Tomlin is now looking to avoid a nine-year drought without a single playoff win.
The NFL Playoffs isn't the time for Mike Tomlin to lean into his conservative coaching nature; it's the time to get aggressive and unleash the full playbook against the best teams the AFC has to offer. If the Steelers can do that against the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round, they'll have a chance to advance in the postseason. If not, they're already doomed.