In the early portions of the 2025 season, it seemed like smooth sailing for the Pittsburgh Steelers. On October 12, Mike Tomlin's team sat on a comfortable 4-1 record while the Baltimore Ravens seemed effectively eliminated from contention at 1-5.
Somehow, the Steelers surrendered their pole position.
As the season marched on, Pittsburgh hit a few roadblocks while Baltimore went on a run. From Week 7 to Week 13, the Steelers went 2-5, while the Ravens found a way to go on a five-game winning streak in the middle of the season.
Now, we're getting set to enter a do-or-die AFC North title game—the winner gets to host a home playoff game, and the loser goes home. But the Steelers can't allow the Ravens to make history this week.
The Baltimore Ravens could make history if the Pittsburgh Steelers don't put a stop to it on SNF
The NFL has a shorter season than nearly all professional sports, so a rough start is often a death sentence for teams looking to compete in the postseason.
Historically, teams that start the season 1-2 have approximately a 25-30 percent chance of making the playoffs. It scales down dramatically from there. Teams that start 1-3 have a 12-14 percent chance, and teams that start 1-4 on the season have just a 6-7 percent chance of cracking the tournament.
But teams who start 1-5? These teams have approximately a one percent chance all-time of making it to the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Ravens could accomplish this feat on Sunday Night Football.
Only four teams have completed this task since the 1970 NFL merger, per CBS News: the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals, the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs, the 2018 Indianapolis Colts, and the 2020 Washington Football Team. The Ravens are aiming to be the fifth team in NFL history to earn a playoff berth from a 1-5 record.
Sadly, the Steelers should have never allowed it to come down to this. At one point in the season, Tomlin's team held a three-and-a-half game lead over their divisional opponent. Pittsburgh also has a few egregious losses on the season, including a squandered opportunity against quarterback Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals back in Week 7.
The Steelers had a chance to claim the AFC North crown by taking care of business against the then 3-12 Cleveland Browns. But thanks to a dismal offensive showing in the 13-6 loss, it all comes down to Week 18 between the Steelers and Ravens.