The Pittsburgh Steelers appear to have no set direction for where they could be headed in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. After stabilizing sizable roster holes with wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and cornerback Jamel Dean, a handful of options could be on the table with the No. 21 overall pick this month.
But the latest mock draft trends show a discouraging pattern that raises cause for concern.
On Thursday, Underdog shared its draft trends tool, which predicts the probability that certain players will fall to specific draft picks, based on data collected from mock drafts over the previous seven-day span. And if the hope is for Pittsburgh to land a premium talent, against the consensus board, it's not shaping up well.
According to Underdog's availability odds calculator, the Steelers have a 0% chance to land Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate at pick 21. This can be expected, as Tate is a high-floor prospect at a premium position with uber-clean tape. But it gets much worse.
The available odds suggest the Steelers have just a 4% chance to secure USC WR Makai Lemon and a mere 20% chance to nab Arizona State wideout, Jordyn Tyson. If Pittsburgh intends to go the offensive line route, they have just a 19% chance of landing Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane and a mere 4% chance of grabbing Utah's Spencer Fano.
Here's where things get really discouraging.
Underdog's availability calculator allows users to group prospects together. The Steelers were given just a 55% chance to have any of the following options available at pick No. 21: WR Carnell Tate, WR Makai Lemon, WR Jordyn Tyson, CB Jermod McCoy, S Caleb Downs, S Dillon Thieneman, OT Monroe Freeling, OG Vega Ioane, OT Spencer Fano.
And this assumes that players like CB Mansoor Delane, LB Sonny Styles, and the top draft prospects are already long gone.
If this group of talented prospects gets wiped from the board before Pittsburgh is on the clock, the Steelers could be in trouble.
The Pittsburgh Steelers should consider trading up in Round 1 after latest mock draft availability odds
These odds from Underdog are hardly foolproof. They are based on over 1,400 mock drafts submitted by fans over the past week. Thus, biases and presuppositions come into play. However, if teams are selecting based on the consensus, this will be bad news for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
If the aforementioned names get swiped before pick 21, the Steelers could be forced to 'reach' for a positional need in the first round. This means Omar Khan could be forced to turn his card in for either an underwhelming talent or a player at a less valuable position, like Georgia linebacker CJ Allen or Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren.
If the Steelers want to avoid reaching against the consensus board, they may be forced to trade up a few spots to land an on-value or above-value player in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft. Doing so could cost them a second or even third-round pick.
It all comes down to how much risk Khan and the Steelers are willing to take early in the draft. They can either get aggressive or hope the chips fall their way.