The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a very good spot entering Week 7 of the 2026 NFL season. Sitting at 4-2, they have certainly exceeded expectations to this point and look like a team that could secure a playoff spot for the fourth season in a row.
Coming into the season, everyone knew it would be vital for the Steelers to rack up the early-season wins, as the back half of their schedule is much more difficult.
However, it doesn’t quite look as daunting as it did two months ago, as the Eagles have lost four straight and will be without Jalen Hurts in their matchup against the Steelers. And the Texans certainly haven’t looked like the Super Bowl-caliber team that many people predicted we would see this season.
So just how important is it that they get a win against the Saints in France on Sunday? And how much would a loss hurt their chances of making the postseason?
Let’s dive into this high-leverage matchup to see what is on the line for Pittsburgh:
The Pittsburgh Steelers currently have a 46% chance to make the NFL playoffs
Heading into Week 7, the Pittsburgh Steelers are currently the No. 7 seed in the AFC and would take on the Buffalo Bills if the playoffs started today. But they don’t (obviously), and things are about to change a bunch over the next two months.
As of today, the Steelers have a 46 percent chance to make the postseason, according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor. They only give the Steelers a 17 percent chance to win the AFC North, but that would change dramatically if they win this weekend.
But let’s first start with their overall odds.
With a win on Sunday against the Saints, the Steelers’ odds of making the playoffs would skyrocket to 57 percent. A chance of 11 percent in one week is a very dramatic amount, and that would put them in excellent shape going into November.
But a loss would be just as impactful, with their odds of making the playoffs falling to just 37 percent. Those odds are dependent on other outcomes this weekend, but a 20 percent swing overall makes this one of the highest-leverage games of the weekend.
But what about the AFC North? How much might a win swing things for them?
Not as much as you might think. Because the Ravens and the Bengals play one another this weekend, that means that one of those two teams would still only have two losses coming out of October. Because the Steelers have already beaten the Bengals, their odds of winning the AFC North slightly increase if Cincinnati takes down Baltimore this weekend, but only by a fraction.
A loss this weekend would have a much bigger impact for Pittsburgh, as they would only be given a 12 percent chance of winning the AFC North despite a 4-3 record. And again, that’s because at least one team in the AFC North would have only two losses—and there is a chance two teams could have just two losses if the Browns beat the Titans in Week 7.
Needless to say, this is a big game for Pittsburgh. If they want to be taken seriously in the AFC and have a shot at hosting a home playoff game again, this is the kind of game that they need to win. The Saints are among the worst teams in the NFC, and the Steelers have the defense to make life miserable for Tyler Shough.
A win would go a long way to helping the Steelers get back to the postseason, but a loss would actually be far more damaging.
And that’s the reason why we love the NFL so much: every single game matters.
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