It’s almost Thanksgiving, which means the NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape. Heading into Week 12, the Pittsburgh Steelers still hold the lead in the AFC North, putting them in the driver's seat to control their own destiny down the stretch.
Of course, that lead has been categorized as flimsy for the better part of a month. Pittsburgh began the season 4-1, while the Baltimore Ravens battled injuries to a 1-5 start. The Ravens have since closed the gap, now just one game back from Pittsburgh, with both rivalry meetings scheduled in the final five weeks of the season.
With Baltimore surging and the Steelers playing inconsistently, it’s no wonder that Pittsburgh’s advantage appears as a mirage to most, including the data from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Pittsburgh Steelers' playoff position is on the shakiest ground imaginable
The NFL’s running 2025 Playoff Picture on their official website paints a playoff picture that is no doubt concerning to Steelers’ fans.
At 39%, the Steelers hold the smallest chance of any team, regardless of conference, to preserve their current spot in the NFL playoffs. Meanwhile, the Ravens hold a higher chance to make the postseason than six teams from either conference currently in the field of 14 at 77%.
Much of that comes down to the scheduling. Baltimore only has one more NFC matchup, so nearly all of their remaining games play a critical role in determining their postseason outlook. Four of their final six games are against the Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals after having already swept the Cleveland Browns.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has two tough NFC matchups against the Chicago Bears this week and the Detroit Lions the Sunday before Christmas. They also have the Buffalo Bills mixed in to close out the month of November. With just three AFC North meetings remaining, it adds up why Baltimore holds such a distinct advantage.
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Of course, in the Wild Card race, Pittsburgh also has to contend with the equally inconsistent Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars only play two teams with winning records down the stretch, though that does mean two meetings with the Indianapolis Colts.
Still, Jacksonville also has two dates with the Tennessee Titans and the New York Jets, three very winnable games that could give them a stark advantage if they can manage to at worst split with the Colts.
To round out the field, one Wild Card spot will likely belong to either the Bills or Patriots. Another will likely belong to either the Los Angeles Chargers or the Kansas City Chiefs if they don’t end up taking both slots.
No matter how the chips fall with those other contenders, it all puts a serious squeeze on Pittsburgh to hold its ground at the top of the AFC North or risk missing out on the playoffs altogether.
That said, there are a lot of scenarios that can play out in the final seven weeks of the season. Pittsburgh may face low odds, but winning only increases them, especially against AFC opponents. While the Steelers likely won’t win all of their remaining games, they can’t afford to slip against teams like the Bears, Dolphins, and Browns. Those are winnable games that can at least give them a cushion with their tougher matchups against the Bills, Lions, and Ravens.