Typically, AFC vs. NFC matchups don’t shake up the NFL Playoff picture that much. But this week, when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears meet at Soldier Field, the outcome is sure to leave a lasting impact on both teams’ playoff chances.
Both the Steelers and the Bears hold the lead in each conference’s North divisions, but neither lead is anywhere close to safe. Pittsburgh has three more divisional games on its schedule, including two dates with the second-place Baltimore Ravens. Meanwhile, Chicago has a similar road ahead with two games against the Green Bay Packers and a meeting with the Detroit Lions left on their schedule.
Both teams hold the lowest percent chance to make the playoffs of any team that would make the field if the 2025 season ended after Week 11. The Bears carry a 59% chance of reaching the postseason heading into Week 12, while Pittsburgh’s chances are just 39%.
Pittsburgh Steelers need a win in Chicago to stabilize postseason hopes
Using NFL Next Gen Stats, NFL.com highlights each team’s chances to make the playoffs after each week with a look at how their chances can improve or worsen depending on the following week’s outcome. With that data in mind, the NFL’s data model suggests that the Steelers-Bears matchup this week is “the most consequential game of the week.”
For Pittsburgh, a win would move the Steelers’ chances up to 52%. It wouldn’t necessarily give them a ton of cushion, as much of their playoff chances are rooted in the outcomes of the two Ravens games ahead. However, a loss would push Pittsburgh's chances of reaching the postseason to just 31%.
Effectively, it’s as much of a “must-win” game as any other for Pittsburgh, but the benefits of leaving Chicago with a seventh win can’t be understated either. The Steelers need as much leverage as possible as they face a daunting final stretch of the 2025 campaign.
The model suggests that if Pittsburgh doesn’t win the AFC North to secure their spot in the playoffs, its best hope is to snag the third and final Wild Card slot. A win against Chicago doesn’t necessarily help them too much in that regard, but with Buffalo and Baltimore coming up after Chicago, the momentum from a win in Chicago would be far from meaningless.
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As for Chicago, a win could actually thrust them into first place in the NFC, though that would also mean the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams slip this week. Nonetheless, a win would push Chicago’s playoff chances all the way up to 69%. As nice as that would feel for Bears fans, a loss would push their playoff hopes down to 45%, likewise putting more pressure on their remaining NFC North matchups.
As the data pointed out, Chicago drew the easiest schedule in the NFL through the first 11 weeks, but they are now tied with the Packers for the toughest seven-game stretch to close the season.
While much of the conversation surrounding this game centers on whether Aaron Rodgers can play against a team he has tormented for the better part of the past two decades, it still serves as the ultimate wake-up call to both teams that November is here and the race to the playoffs is a ruthless endeavor.