The Pittsburgh Steelers are set to head into the dead part of the offseason with still a lot of news to chatter about. Aaron Rodgers finally signed his deal and is the presumed starter, and we are all on pins and needles awaiting a T.J. Watt extension.
A less talked-about story, this Steelers roster is pretty young right now. While a few veteran faces are talked about the most, there is a slew of youth on this team.
In particular, there are currently 17 rookies on the roster vying for a spot. While some names are safe bets to make the team, others will claw their way to try to stick around past cutdowns.
While we are still a ways away from training camp, I wanted to take my crack at ranking every rookie’s odds of making the team. Some names are obvious, while others may prove surprising. Here are the odds of every rookie making the roster.
Steelers roster locks (100%): Derrick Harmon, Kaleb Johnson
The only two locks on this list, the Steelers' top two picks, have zero shot of being cut. While teams can move away from their early picks after a season (if things have gone that badly), they are not at risk of being cut in 2025.
Derrick Harmon should figure into the defensive line room sooner rather than later. He has already been named a starter at left defensive tackle by defensive line coach Karl Dunbar. No matter what his role ultimately is, he will take up a spot on the defensive depth chart.
I’m lower on Kaleb Johnson than most in terms of what his role will be as a rookie, but even then, he is at no risk of being cut this season. He has a much better shot at starting as opposed to being cut after camp.
Steelers securely on roster (80%): Jack Sawyer
Some will argue that Jack Sawyer should be a lock, and I can certainly listen to that debate. That said, fourth-round picks aren’t locks in the league, and the fourth edge rusher has to play a specific role.
Sawyer needs to shine on special teams, and if he doesn’t, he could lose ground to some of the other names on the depth chart. He is a favorite to land on the roster, but you can’t write his name in pen quite yet.
Steelers inside looking out (60%): Yahya Black
I considered putting Yahya Black in the spot below, but after Montravius Adams was cut, it opened up a perfect spot. Black has the size of an end, but his best play comes inside as a nose tackle.
If the team is allowing him to focus on his more natural position inside, I like his odds of sticking as a backup. If the goal is to make him an end, his roster odds take a bit of a dive. That said, I think he should be seen as an early favorite to make the squad.
Steelers coin flip (50%): Carson Bruener, Will Howard, DJ Thomas-Jones
These three names are truly fifty-fifty. I could see it going either way, and won’t be shocked if any of these rookies make the team or are cut as of now.
Will Howard seems to be everybody’s early darling, but he is only a sixth-round pick and lost his college job to Skylar Thompson a few years ago. If he falters, he could easily be cut and not make this team.
Carson Bruner and Mark Robinson appear to be in a two-dogs-one-bone situation. Robinson has proven to be good on special teams, but Bruner can be controlled for longer and is expected to be a good special teams player. This battle could go either way.
Finally, we get an undrafted rookie on this list. DJ Thomas-Jones can play fullback, and the Steelers didn’t have one last year. If they want a traditional option there, he could sneak his way onto a roster spot.
Steelers outside looking in (40%): Sebastian Castro, JJ Galbreath, Donte Kent, Gareth Warren
These guys are likely to miss the roster, but a few strong plays could end up moving them into a roster spot. Sebastian Castro is my favorite undrafted rookie. He can earn a role on special teams and even play some snaps in the slot. With so many cornerbacks on the team, his odds of making the team initially aren’t great.
JJ Galbreath would have been a long shot early last week, but with Donald Parham getting injured, this team will need to find a third traditional tight end. Galbreath has looked solid so far, so he could sneak onto the final team.
Like Castro, Donte Kent enters a crowded room with few opportunities. Unless he can become the starting returner, his only path is beating out Beanie Bishop for a starting role. If he doesn’t, I don’t see him making the team.
Finally, Gareth Warren doesn’t make sense as a potential roster sleeper, but the tackle depth is so weak that a few good reps could quickly earn him a spot. He may have to kick inside, but if he can put up some strong tackle reps, he has a clear path to the roster.
Steelers long shots (20%): Max Hurlman, Montana Lemonious-Craig, Ben Sauls, Roc Taylor, Aiden Williams, Ke’Shawn Williams
The rest of this group has almost no path to make the roster. All of them would need a Cinderella-like training camp and preseason to make this team. It could happen, but the odds of any of them being more than practice-squad fits seem unlikely.