The Pittsburgh Steelers recently upset the formerly 7-1 Indianapolis Colts. Ahead of Week 9, the Colts were the NFL's top team in point differential (+116) and DVOA—two metrics that are typically great indicators of a team's strength.
Mike Tomlin just bested the top-ranked team in the AFC to advance to 5-3 at the midway point of the season. The Steelers now have wins over the top two seeds in the conference (the Colts and the Patriots). This feels like the perfect opportunity for Steelers fans to gloat.
But if we're being honest with ourselves, there's a tough reality check we all need to face.
Once again, the Pittsburgh Steelers were outpaced in nearly every statistical category in Week 9, per ESPN stats. The Colts outgained Tomlin's team in total yardage (368 to 225), first downs (26 to 17), third down conversions (6 to 4), fourth down conversions (5 to 1), total plays (74 to 61), yards per play (5.0 to 3.7), and time of possession (31:55 to 28:05).
The truth is, the Steelers were able to pull off this upset victory in the most Mike Tomlin way possible: winning the turnover battle.
Pittsburgh created six takeaways in this contest and was plus-five in turnover margin. It was these splash plays that led to terrific starting field position for the offense. At the same time, scoring just 27 points off this many takeaways is a bit disappointing.
While it seems like the Steelers can pull one of these splash defensive performances out of their hat a few times per season, Tomlin's flawed philosophy won't lead to postseason success.
Mike Tomlin's philosophy of the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense creating takeaways isn't sustainable or consistent
Every head coach wants their team to win the turnover battle each game; this isn't just a Mike Tomlin thing. However, most head coaches know that these splash plays on the defense can't be counted on game in and game out. Tomlin seems to be the only one who doesn't understand that.
It's easy to upset even the best teams in the league when you come away with three fumble recoveries and three interceptions. But how repeatable are these performances?
In eight games in the 2025 season, the Steelers have only taken the ball away more than two times in a game twice. These performances were against the Colts in Week 9 and the Patriots in Week 3. In these contests, Pittsburgh's defense combined to create a whopping 11 takeaways. While they won both games, they have a combined score of just 48 to 34 in these two outings.
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Even when the Steelers are getting as many takeaways as you could dream of in a game, they still aren't blowing out their opponents. The problem is, halfway through the season, the Steelers have a record of just 3-4 when creating two takeaways or fewer. This includes an egregious loss to the 3-6 Cincinnati Bengals.
Here's the biggest problem with Tomlin's philosophy of relying heavily on winning the turnover battle: as soon as the Steelers don't, they look like the worst team.
If the Steelers make it to the playoffs this year, they can't expect to take the football away 3-6 times per game throughout the postseason to keep advancing. And based on their history, they'd be fortunate to even have one game like this in the playoffs.
All of this is to say that the Pittsburgh Steelers must show the ability to outplay their opponents—even when they don't win the turnover battle. Unfortunately, this is not something this Mike Tomlin-led team has done. We need to see that change soon.