Pittsburgh Steelers fans are anxiously awaiting news of a new contract extension for superstar T.J. Watt. The four-time First-Team All-Pro edge defender skipped mandatory minicamp, and no deal is expected to get done anytime soon. When Watt eventually puts pen to paper, most expect him to sign a record-setting deal that would make him the highest-paid defender in the history of the league. But this might not be the case.
NFL Insider Ian Rapoport recently spoke about some prominent NFL edge rushers like T.J. Watt and Trey Hendrickson. While many believe Watt will top Myles Garrett's earth-shattering numbers of $40 million per season, Rapoport sees Watt and Hendrickson falling in the Maxx Crosby-to-Garrett range.
"[Trey] Hendrickson, [T.J.] Watt, I think they'll be in the [Maxx] Crosby, [Myles] Garrett range, Rapoport said on ESPN's Unsportsmanlike on Tuesday. "Somewhere in there."
The Raiders beat the Browns to the punch this offseason in a deal with their star edge rusher, inking Crosby to a contract worth $35.5 million per year in new money average. This means that Rapoport believes Watt and Hendrickson could fall in the $35-40 million per year range.
But there's an edge rusher not named Watt who Rapoport believes will break the bank like never before.
"Micah Parsons, I expect to become the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history," Schefter continued. "That's the deal that I expect to trump the other deals."
Dallas Cowboys star Micah Parsons expected to make more than T.J. Watt will earn with the Pittsburgh Steelers
If you've only been tracking box score numbers in recent years, you might be having a hard time figuring out why Ian Rapoport predicted Micah Parsons—not T.J. Watt—to be the defensive player who will break records on his new contract. In reality, it's not hard to figure out.
Watt has indeed been more productive on the stat sheet since Parsons entered the league. In Parsons' rookie year in 2021, Watt tied Michael Strahan for the single-season sack record with 22.5. Then, after suffering a torn pectoral in 2022, Watt bounced back in 2023—earning 19 sacks and First-Team All-Pro honors while finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting to Myles Garrett.
But it's not hard to figure out why Parsons will (and probably should) be paid more than Watt on their next contract extensions.
Watt is entering his age-31 season after one of the worst years we've seen from the superstar. In 2024, Watt recorded just 11.5 sacks while going completely quiet over the final five games of the season and into the playoffs. Though Watt's past production will certainly factor into contract negotiations, his next extension will take him to his mid-30s.
On the other hand, Micah Parsons just turned 26 years old and is entering the prime of his NFL career. As Watt is expected to be at the start of his career decline, Parsons could prove to be even better than he's been in his first four seasons. Parsons finished with more sacks and pressures than Watt last season despite missing four games with a high ankle sprain in 2024.
READ MORE: T.J. Watt snubbed as Myles Garrett backed a massive deal for NFL star
Hendrickson, 30, is in the same boat as Watt. Knowing that he could begin declining late in his career, he might not land the top contract he's seeking. And Hendrickson's agent has a case to plead. The Cincinnati Bengals star recorded 17.5 sacks in back-to-back seasons while earning First-Team All-Pro honors in 2024 and finishing second in the DPOY race.
Rapoport made it clear that T.J. Watt is going to get paid, but this might not be the market-resetting contract fans are expecting. Watt knows the value he's offered the team over the years, which is probably why this extension is taking so long. Still, the Pittsburgh Steelers would be wise to get a deal done before the Dallas Cowboys extend Micah Parsons.