With T.J. Watt now confirmed to be out for Monday night's game against the Miami Dolphins, history suggests that the Pittsburgh Steelers are facing an uphill battle.
The Steelers are an abysmal 1-10 without Watt since the star pass rusher joined the team in 2017, compared to 86-46-2 when he plays. It may not be a massive sample size, but it's large enough for fans to be rightfully concerned about the prospect of playing without him in Week 15 (and potentially longer).
Luckily for the Steelers, this year's roster is more prepared than ever to handle a Watt injury. Alex Highsmith is healthy and playing at a high level, and rookie Jack Sawyer has looked serviceable in limited action.
It will be rising star Nick Herbig, however, that must step up in Watt's absence.
Nick Herbig is the only thing standing in the way of another Pittsburgh Steelers' loss without T.J. Watt
Watt has luckily been relatively healthy throughout his Steelers career, only missing more than two games once in nine seasons. The bulk of his missed time came back in 2022, and Highsmith was forced into being the top edge rusher with no real help around him.
Malik Reed was the other primary pass rusher opposite Highsmith in Watt's absence, and it was an ugly scene most weeks. He was a fine run defender, but he offered next to nothing in terms of getting after the quarterback.
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In 2025, that problem no longer exists. Highsmith is still here and will likely get the most snaps without Watt, but his running mate is much more of a threat this time, thanks to the emergence of Herbig. He has been among the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL over the past two seasons, and Pro Football Focus ranks him fifth among all edge rushers this year.
You don't need to look at any analytics/grades to know how talented Herbig is, however. Put on any Steelers game, and it won't take long to see number 51 flying into the backfield.
With him and Highsmith, the Steelers' pass rush should be in good hands even without Watt. The run defense, however, may be an issue that cannot be helped. Even with Watt out there in recent weeks, Pittsburgh has given up a combined 466 yards on the ground in the last two games. With the majority of the defensive line nursing injuries at the moment, it could be a long night against the Dolphins' high-octane run game.
Still, the Steelers have never been in a better position to be successful without their highest-paid player, and Herbig is the biggest reason why.