Going into this game, it might be the best shot the Pittsburgh Steelers have at ending their playoff curse under head coach Mike Tomlin. The organization has been running on a five-game losing streak in postseason battles since 2017, and none of those losses were close.
Tomlin has transformed this once-feared organization into a mediocre figurehead who tries to stay relevant solely on reputation.
As they get set to take on the Houston Texans in Pittsburgh, it will be the first home playoff game for the club since January 10, 2021. That was an upset loss against the Browns, and they hope to turn their disastrous fortunes around. Houston boasts a terrific defense, though its offensive attack can be spotty. Things could either get ugly in a hurry, or Pittsburgh could make this a rock fight.
Neither team is afraid to make this game close and try to claim victory in the last seconds of the game. No one should pick a blowout either way, which means it could be a low-scoring affair. The Texans are riding a nine-game win streak to conclude their regular season, meaning they haven't lost since November 2. The Steelers are unlikely to have predictions in their favor.
Pittsburgh Steelers' Playoff Still Curtain predictions provide uncertainty behind Mike Tomlin
"The Pittsburgh Steelers and Aaron Rodgers face a formidable challenge against Houston’s top-ranked defense, despite receiving DK Metcalf back from a two-game suspension. Pittsburgh’s offensive line will have a huge task slowing down Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. The extra day of preparation works out in Pittsburgh's favor. Teryl Austin’s defense shuts down CJ Stroud, giving the Pittsburgh Steelers a much-needed playoff victory." - Loyal Ricks Jr. (Steelers 24-18)
"I don't have a good feel for this game. The optimist in me sees a different Steelers team right now that could take advantage of a weak AFC playoff race. The realist in me sees the Texans are leaps and bounds better than them and should roll over us. At the end of the day, I don't think the Steelers get the monkey off their back." - Andrew Falce (Texans 28-21)
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"Last week, for reasons I couldn't explain, I predicted the Steelers would defeat the Ravens in dramatic fashion. For whatever reason, I see the same happening this week. Mike Tomlin is desperate to avoid nine straight years without a playoff win, and it's still possible that he won't be back next season if Pittsburgh falls short on Monday night. The pressure has never been higher for this current Steelers team, and I have them delivering in a contest decided by a field goal." - Tommy Jaggi (Steelers 20-17)
"I think the Steelers have a real path to victory over the Texans, even if it's a narrow one. Pittsburgh is the far more experienced team, playing at home, and has its most dynamic receiver returning to the lineup (DK Metcalf). Aaron Rodgers is far from perfect, but he gives them a far better chance at success offensively than they have had in any of their recent playoff games. Ultimately, I think Mike Tomlin ends his losing streak in the playoffs, even if he is likely to start a new one shortly after." - Shayne Kubas (20-17)
Final prediction: Steelers 16, Texans 22
This playoff matchup could go either way. Nothing will be more important than turnovers. Pittsburgh’s defense depends on interceptions and fumbles to alter the game’s trajectory. Houston has been a solid defensive unit overall, even when it does not force turnovers.
Pittsburgh’s heavy reliance on turnovers to offset its defensive issues may be concerning when making a pick in this game.
While dissecting the Texans, they haven't turned over the ball much this year. Their offense can be boring at times, but they won't allow themselves to shoot themselves in the foot. C.J. Stroud is a proven starting quarterback with a past victory over the Steelers. Predictions should be in Houston's favor, even though they are from a warmer climate, and it'll be chilly in Pittsburgh.
Aaron Rodgers and the offense should have signs of life with DK Metcalf back in the fold, but the Texans' defense has too many ways to destroy the Steelers' attack.
It would not be shocking if Metcalf and Rodgers were occasionally out of sync, which could result in an interception. Pittsburgh's offense has shown signs of improvement recently, but that could come to a screeching halt.
Expect a low-scoring battle on Monday Night, which could go in Tomlin's favor, but it's not a scenario where the Texans struggle in either.
Until the Steelers find a way to break their playoff curse, it's impossible to provide a prediction where they win a postseason game. This is one of their best opportunities to get that monkey off their back since 2021, but it'll be hard to do that.