2. AP voters will consider advanced data
In addition to possessing a worse team defense than Myles Garrett or Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt is also at the mercy of AP voters who are starting to consider new advanced data when it comes to evaluating pass rushers.
There was a point in time where raw numbers were the biggest driving factor when it came to end-of-the-year NFL awards. Who has the most passing yards? Who leads the league in sacks? Who scored the most touchdowns? The list goes on. But with access to all sorts of new advanced statistics, there's a whole new department that can impact award voting.
While Watt is among the most productive pass rushers in the league this year, he's not among the most efficient when it comes to getting pressure on the quarterback. On a per-play basis, Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, and others have higher pressure rates and pass-rush win rates. These numbers are now considered and are factored into the evaluation process.
Some of these efficiency numbers are not Watt's fault. Because he's hardly asked to leave the field, the 30-year-old has played more snaps than all but six pass rushers in the NFL entering Week 18. By doing so, it's clear that he's not going to be as fresh and energized to get after the quarterback on each play -- directly affecting his pressure and pass-rush win rate.
Regardless, these advanced metrics could certainly play a factor when it comes to the panel of 50 voters for the 2023 NFL awards, and Watt just doesn't have the same efficiency numbers that Garrett and Parsons possess.