4 reasons to bet the over on Steelers win total (and 3 reasons to bet the under)

The Steelers are a very new team this year, but they have a lot of hope for a strong season ahead of them. Vegas seems less convinced of this new-look team though, as the current win/loss number was set at 8.5 wins, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

For those of you who aren’t avid sportsbetters, when Vegas sets a line like this, you can take either the over or under. The over means you think the Steelers will win more than 8.5 games, while the under means you think the team will win less than that number. Even if you don’t bet, this is a huge indicator of what the majority of people think about how Pittsburgh will perform this season.

Given the Steelers' win total last year, it seems like a no-brainer that they will exceed this number, making the over seem like a lock. There are some inherent issues with the Steelers though that could hinder them. Here are my four reasons Pittsburgh will exceed 8.5 wins and three reasons that they won’t.

Reasons Steelers will exceed 8.5 wins

It all starts at quarterback for the Steelers. For the past two seasons, this team has been led by a rotating cast of mediocre players. Highlighted by Kenny Pickett, this passing offense went through one of the most abysmal stretches in modern NFL history. It was a putrid showing that limited this offense.

The quarterback room is very different this year and for the better. Russell Wilson is looking to rekindle his youthful success in the league after a middling stint with the Broncos. While he isn’t the same elite quarterback as before, he is a clear improvement over the previous room. The same goes for Justin Fields, although he doesn’t figure to start.

The Arthur Smith offense is also clearly defined and easy to figure out. In Tennessee, it helped revitalize the career of Ryan Tannehill and made the Titans a playoff team. This team had Matt Canada last year, who has gone done as one of the worst offensive coordinators in team history.

The offensive line is also beefed up and figures to be the best it has been in five years. For an offense that plans on running the ball, this will be key for the team. The talent has been there at running back, but the line has failed to hold up their end of the bargain.

The linebacker room as a whole seems upgraded. At off-ball, Patrick Queen should step in and be a dynamic element on defense. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith will be their usual elite self, but Nick Herbig could take a big step forward. He was elite in his few snaps last year and should see an expanded role.

Reasons Steelers won’t exceed 8.5 wins

Beyond the usual injury concerns, this team features a lot of really new faces on offense. On paper, those are improvements, but we have seen teams with a lot of new struggles. NFL teams are intricate with a lot of moving parts. This team could be slow out of the gate and have more hiccups than many expect. Wilson could also just continue to regress while Fields continues to be the inconsistent player he was in Chicago.

While improved, the offensive line and run game have been slow to start over the past two years. It has taken close to half the season for the running game to find its legs. For a Smith offense built on the run, this will be a death blow if we see a similarly slow start.

Speaking of Smith’s offense, I’m not sure it is as good as many claim it to be. It is built with a simple premise: a singular star receiver and a tight end-heavy pass game while the rest of the offense runs through the backs. It worked in Tennessee but faltered in Atlanta. I have my concerns with the receiver room right now even if George Pickens figures to thrive in this scheme.

The Titans had a prime Derrick Henry at the helm which made this style of offense feasible. No matter what defenses did, Henry was still dominating on Sundays. The Falcons never had that elite back, and while their offense still found success on the ground, it never fully resembled the successful offense he had in Tennessee. While the Steelers offense has more talent overall than the Falcons, it lacks the generational talent of Henry in the backfield.

Overall, it seems like a lock that the Steelers will exceed the 8.5 win total this year. The defense is, at worst, stagnant and the offense is greatly improved on paper. This team won ten games last year, so why wouldn’t they exceed their win total this year? That said, I do have the issues that I think will hold this team back. Ultimately, I do think that this team goes over the projected win total, although I can see a valid argument of why they won’t this year.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.