Best NFL prop bets for Steelers vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football

Breaking down our favorite player prop bets for Thursday night's matchup between the Steelers and Patriots.

Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (88) runs
Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (88) runs / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Steelers will try to pick up a road win against the New England Patriots on Thursday night without starting QB Kenny Pickett. Pickett suffered a high ankle sprain in last week's loss to the Arizona Cardinals, making Mitchell Trubisky the starter for the foreseeable future.

I found two Steelers props and a Patriots prop worth betting on in a game where the total is O/U 30 points.

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Best NFL Prop Bets for Steelers vs. Patriots in Week 14

  • Ezekiel Elliott OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Pat Freiermuth OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-110)
  • Mitchell Trubisky UNDER 184.5 passing yards (-115)

Ezekiel Elliott OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115)

With Rhamondre Stevenson out because of a high-ankle sprain, we should see a ton of work for Ezekiel Elliott on Thursday night. Elliott received the majority of carries after Stevenson exited last week’s game against the Chargers. The former Cowboys running back had 52 yards on 17 carries.

Elliott has yet to start in a game for New England this season but does have four games with double-digit carries. In those games, Elliott is averaging 54.2 rushing yards per game. He will face a Steelers’ defense, which was carved up by the Cardinals last week (150 yards) and allows 121 rushing yards per game this season.

Pat Freiermuth OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-110)

Freiermuth’s receiving yard prop is one of my favorite plays for Thursday night, even though he has Mitch Trubisky throwing him the ball. Since returning from injury, the former Penn State tight end has seen 16 targets over his last two games.

Last week, the Cardinals’ defense held Freiermuth to three receptions (five targets) for 29 yards after recording 120 receiving yards in Week 12 against the Bengals. 

However, I don’t see New England shutting him down a second consecutive week, as it is ranked 20th in DVOA-TE and allow 37.9 receiving yards per game, per Last week, we saw Chargers TE Gerald Everett have four receptions (five targets) for 44 yards against this defense.

Mitchell Trubisky UNDER 184.5 passing yards (-115)

In the two games, we saw Trubisky have extensive playing time this season, he threw for 117 and 138 yards, respectively. Now, the Steelers will ask him to jump back into the starting QB role for Thursday night after Kenny Pickett went down with a right high-ankle sprain.

Last season, as the Steelers' starting quarterback, Trubisky averaged 166.4 passing yards per game and only completed 62.3% of his passes (five games). Trubisky didn’t do anything special under center, which led to Pittsburgh starting Pickett. The former second overall pick will try to make some plays against the Patriots’ defense, which allows 6.8 yards per attempt and 221.8 yards per game.

I think Trubisky will make a few plays as he has a healthy core of pass catchers at his disposal, but I don’t see him going OVER 184.5 passing yards after seeing the Pats allow 189.3 passing yards per game over their last three games.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.