Breaking down every scenario for Kenny Pickett's Steelers season

The Steelers have a rebuilt team this offseason, as both the offense and defense have a lot of new faces and a new identity to incorporate. While I have some optimism about the season, I also recognize that there are some key young players that will ultimately determine the overall success of this team.

I’m creating and analyzing the variance I think we can see in these players’ seasons, from a horrible season, to what I expect, to them blowing my expectations out of the water. I’m assuming the player stays healthy and stays relatively consistent with some of his stats. Any variance will be where we see the projected improvement or lack thereof.

We are starting this series with Kenny Pickett, as the quarterback enters his second season with the team.

Pickett had a mediocre first season with the Steelers. His early season was erratic and sloppy, and while he cleaned a lot of that up later in the season, he lacked big plays and struggled to score.

Despite all of this, fans are extraordinarily high on the sophomore quarterback. I want to try and see what a realistic stat line is for Pickett though. I’ve extrapolated the stats below, which would have been his rookie season had he started every game.

As you can see, these stats are pretty bad overall. I really wanted Pickett to be a more accurate passer considering one of his top traits in school was his accuracy. The biggest issue was his touchdown/interception numbers. Those need to be trending in the opposite direction. With plenty of areas to improve, here is a breakdown of every route Pickett could go in his second season.

What if Pickett has an average season for Steelers?

When I say an average season, I mean that based on his previous seasons. In essence, this is what my expectation is for Pickett entering year two. While many will say that these aren’t average quarterback stats (I would tend to agree), expecting him to be dynamic in year two is silly.

My expectation is steady improvement in an offense that protects him. Notable consistencies from the average are Pickett’s completion percentage and total yards. While I have him averaging a few more passing yards per game, it isn’t anything notable. His rushing stats remain the same, as he can make an impact on the ground, but it won’t be his focus.

A notable change is his attempts and completions, as I have him attempting only 25 passes a game on average as this offense hopes to run the ball more. Expecting him to be among the league leaders in attempts and completion would be a bad thing, as that means this offense floundered when they tried to be a run-focused team. I’m fine with the decreased attempts assuming he is more efficient with them.

While he isn’t perfect, his touchdown ratio doubles while his interception ratio is more in line with what it was in the latter half of the season. His numbers aren’t gaudy, but he is an efficient game manager who doesn’t kill the team but also doesn’t win many games on his own. Again, this is what my expectation is for him entering year two.

What if Pickett has a below-average season for the Steelers?

I figured I would start on the more negative side of things first. While the expectation is that Pickett will show some growth in his second season, that isn’t a sure thing by any means. Plenty of rookie quarterbacks have faltered in their second season. Unfortunately, if Pickett does that, the Steelers are in real trouble.

A below-average season is thus outlined above. Notable is that Pickett is attempting 50 more total passes but actually sees his completion percentage regress. This leads to a similar yardage output as what his rookie season would have been had he started every game. The actual passing yards per game remain consistent.

Where things really go wrong is with his efficiency and ability to protect the ball and score. His touchdown ratio only marginally increases, but the lack of efficiency leads to a lackluster showing there. You will need your starting quarterback to accumulate more than 11 passing scores.

The interception ratio, while slightly improved as well, ends up equaling his touchdown ratio. Throwing 11 interceptions isn’t the end of the world, but only tossing 11 touchdowns to go along with that is disappointing. Even in a run-heavy offense, Pickett still struggles when tasked with throwing the ball.

The least notable is his rushing stats. His overall efficiency is worse there. While Pickett won’t be a huge threat on the ground, he can hurt a defense with his legs. In this scenario, he doesn’t really do that. A season like this wouldn’t be the end of Pickett with the Steelers, but it would significantly hurt his odds of being a top guy for the long haul.

What if Pickett has an above-average season for the Steelers?

The above-average season is pretty in line with what my average expectation is for Pickett in year two. He averages a few more passes a game and healthier yards per game, but he is still lacking the sizzle of a typical elite quarterback.

Where Pickett really shines is in his efficiency. His completion percentage shoots up a little which makes all of his numbers look better. While he falls just short of 4000 passing yards, he looks the part of a starting quarterback. The offense still heavily relies on the ground game, but Pickett can make defenses pay on occasion with some big plays.

His scoring numbers are still low but are healthier than what they were as a rookie. His touchdown ratio is an average of some names I compare Pickett to (Derek Carr and Andy Dalton). Their second seasons yielded a healthy ratio of 4.35 percent, which in turn led Pickett to throw for 20 scores.

His interception ratio actually remains the same as the average number. While Pickett is a more effective thrower, it also leads to a more risky style of passing offense. There was a cleaning-up process for Pickett in the second half of his rookie season, but he still made some bad choices. The extra emphasis on the passing game leads to some more turnovers.

Finally, his rushing stats are more efficient, and he finds the endzone an additional time that way. What you see in this scenario is a more collected player that is relying on the run game to open up the passing game. He takes what is given, makes a few plays on his own, and continues to show growth where needed.

What if Pickett has a horrible season for the Steelers?

The worst-case scenario is this. Pickett doesn’t make any sort of a jump and struggles when asked to make even simple plays. While the rushing offense is fine and helps keeps things close, any time the Steelers fall behind or need to throw the ball, fans are praying Pickett can actually hold up.

He throws the most in this scenario, indicating that the rushing offense becomes predictable and ineffective. Unfortunately, the extra opportunity doesn’t yield a lot of success. He completes 58.5 percent of his attempts, which is an objectively bad number, and his yards per game decrease. He is the king of the check-downs, and even then, it isn’t enough to help his numbers.

His touchdown ratio remains the same as it did as a rookie. To me, that is one of the biggest issues that Pickett needs to correct, so the stagnant touchdown ratio is a damaging blow. Two seasons with less than 10 passing touchdowns each year is hard to justify.

His interception ratio remains consistent from his rookie season as well. He makes a lot of costly mistakes and doesn’t provide the big plays to help keep this team competitive. The offense is sluggish like before, and Pickett is a prime reason why it is.

While this is the worst-case scenario, it would also indicate to me that Pickett isn’t going the be the guy for this offense. A pro-ready prospect having a tough first year and an abysmal second showing would be proof enough that he isn’t the guy. As fans, this is absolutely the worst that Pickett could do with a full season.

What if Pickett has a great season for the Steelers?

Rounding out every scenario is what we should all be hoping for: Pickett looks like a legitimate franchise quarterback. Sure, I could have him throwing for over 5000 yards and 35-plus scores but given the fact that this offense is being built around the ground game, that isn’t going to happen.

What could happen is that Pickett gets more and more comfortable as a pro. While a slower early season sees this team grind down teams, he takes steps forward every game and shows a lot of promise. By season’s end, he has a respectable stat line.

Most notably, Pickett is a consistent and efficient player throughout the entire season. He has a remarkably high completion percentage, taking what he is given but also taking chances when necessary. He has a healthy yards per game.

Where Pickett ends up really shining is his touchdown ratio. Again, borrowing some numbers for quarterbacks that seem like good comps, Pickett throws for 25 scores. His interception rate mimics what he did in the latter half of the season last year. His rushing is, again efficient and adds to his totals.

While these numbers don’t scream elite quarterback play, making a jump from his rookie year to this would be huge. The offense would still move through the ground game, but Pickett becomes more than just a game manager. He flashes some great ability in an offense designed to not rely on him.

After crunching these numbers and considering what I saw out of Pickett in his rookie season, I think his final numbers and play will be a mix of his average and above-average scenarios. Specifically, I think his touchdowns will favor the above-average line of 20 while his yards and efficiency elsewhere will be closer to the average ranking.

Pickett is entering an offense that doesn’t need him to be great to succeed. He needs to play clean and take what is given to him. I think he does that in his second year, even if there is still some lackluster elements to his game.