Is now the time to bet on T.J. Watt to win the Defensive Player of the Year award?
By Tommy Jaggi
Nobody should be surprised anymore by what T.J. Watt does on a weekly basis. In Pittsburgh's sluggish start in the season-opener, Watt seemed to be the only player who showed up to play as he pulverized 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz for a three-sack performance. From there, the Steelers star made his presence felt in back-to-back wins against the Browns and Raiders.
Entering Week 4, no defender has recorded more sacks (6.0) or forced fumbles (2.0) than Watt, per Pro Football Reference. He also is tied for the league lead with 1 defensive touchdown in just the first three games.
When doing a bit of simple math, Watt is on the pace for an astonishing 34.0 sacks this year. This would blow away the single-season sack record he already holds by nearly a dozen. Obviously, we can assume that this rate is going to slow down a bit... but then again, this is T.J. Watt we are talking about.
Despite being on pace for the most productive season from a pass rusher in NFL history, Watt does not lead the NFL in Defensive Player of the Year odds. He currently trails Dallas Cowboys All-Pro Micah Parsons and is tied with Browns star Myles Garrett, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
While the Browns and Cowboys have both had overall defenses that are better than Pittsburgh's early in the season, Watt's impact is undeniable. Knowing that Watt has already achieved DPOY status in the past, can he do it again in 2023?
Is now the time to bet on T.J. Watt for DPOY?
It's not hard to believe that T.J. Watt could receive this prestigious honor once again. After all, he's incredibly well-known throughout the football community and has had as many personal accolades as anyone since coming into the league in 2017. Now the question becomes: is this the time to bet on Watt?
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Watt is +400 odds to win the Defensive Player of the Year award following the 2023 season. Considering the unheard-of pace he is on through three games, this seems like an outstanding payout with a potentially high reward. For instance, a $100 bet would net a $400 profit ($500 total payout) if Watt were to win DPOY.
Obviously, there are a handful of players who will be in contention for this prestigious award this year, but it's really looking like it's going to come down to a three-headed race between Watt, Parsons, and Garrett.
Health undoubtedly will play a factor here, so we are banking on T.J. staying healthy. At the same time, it's worth considering that Watt missed two games in 2021 and left the contest early in several others and still brought home the DPOY award.
Of course, you can always risk going one more week. Maybe Watt puts up a goose egg in the sack column against the Texans this week and the potential payout increases a bit. But I might advise against that.
If the Pittsburgh Steelers star has a monstrous game against George Fant -- the backup right tackle for Houston -- his odds to win the Defensive Player of the Year award could skyrocket and the potential payout could be cut in half. At +400 odds, there might be no greater time than now to bet on T.J. Watt winning DPOY in 2023.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.