Week 1 of the NFL season is about to begin, so it's that time when NFL analysts are scrambling to get their final prediction in before the 2023 season officially kicks off. Since the NFL schedule release, the media has been taking stabs at predicting the record of the Pittsburgh Steelers this year.
Improvement from Mike Tomlin's team is to be expected, and on paper, it's impossible to argue that they are less talented than they were in 2022. This doesn't guarantee the Steelers a better record in 2023, but it's reasonable to think that they should be improved.
Recently, Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com projected the win totals of every AFC team this year. Interestingly, Frelund has the Steelers with just 9.0 wins -- good for 10th this year in her AFC rankings. Here's Frelund's explanation:
"If Kenny Pickett is going to take the step forward many of us are anticipating, the O-line will need to do a better job of supporting the offense. The Steelers made moves this offseason to address the front five. That group’s play will go a long way toward deciding how things go for the Pittsburgh offense. By the way, I tracked T.J. Watt in person during the Bills-Steelers preseason game. His first three steps off the line of scrimmage were faster than they were two seasons ago."Cynthia Frelund via NFL.com
Frelund praises the Steelers in one breath and mentions an expected step forward from Kenny Pickett, but she doesn't believe that this team will have a better record than they did last year. Frelund set Pittsburgh's ceiling in 2023 at 10.5 wins with a floor of 7.9 wins. Right now, the over/under is set at 8.5 wins for the Steelers, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Some simple math tells you that the 10th-highest win total in the conference isn't going to get you into the playoff with just 7 AFC teams entering the tournament. Frelund has all three AFC North teams with a higher projected win total than the Steelers -- even the Browns at 9.31 wins.
Frelund is an analytics expert who used data collected and one million simulations of every regular season game to comprise the projected win totals for the 2023 season... but analytics can't account for everything.
Steelers win total should be higher in 2023
As I mentioned, a notably more talented team doesn't automatically mean that the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to have a record better than 9-8 like they finished in 2022. However, the evidence seems to suggest that they could finish a game or two above this mark.
Kenny Pickett is expected to take a big Year 2 leap, and George Pickens and a young offensive cast will accompany him. Additionally, Pittsburgh is adding an uber-talented draft class to the mix, and their depth issues have been fixed at several positions. A healthy T.J. Watt will also play a big factor in their success.
It's interesting how the Cleveland Browns are projected 9.31 wins after going 7-10 last year and and making fewer notable additions than the Steelers this offseason. While QB Deshaun Watson is expected to improve during his second season in Cleveland, so should Pickett during his second season in the NFL.
Read as deeply or as little into these analytics-based win total projections as you choose. I'll just say that I have a hard time believing that the Steelers are going to have the fewest wins in the AFC North this year. It's possible that Mike Tomlin's team finishes with 9 wins, as Frelund's formula projects, but I will gladly take the over on that bet.