NFL.com makes age-old mistake of underestimating the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't been a true Super Bowl contender in years, but that hasn't stopped them from finding a way to stay competitive during the regular season. Regardless of how bad their playcalling, clock management, and quarterback performances are at times, Mike Tomlin manages to pull out one non-losing season after the next as they look to take the next step.

This team hasn't had a losing season since 2003 -- back when Bill Cowher was still the head coach and four years before Tomlin took over the team. But it never fails to amaze me how often major media outlets project the Steelers to have a losing season.

Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com is the latest to fall into this line of thinking. Running 150,000 simulations based on projected 53-man rosters for all 32 teams, Frelund has the Steelers with 8.7 wins on average -- setting the over/under at 8.5 wins for Pittsburgh in 2024.

Based on this simulation, the Steelers fall short of making the playoffs. They also have just +650 odds to win the AFC North and +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl.

Stop underestimating the Steelers in the regular season

When are we going to learn not to stop underestimating the Pittsburgh Steelers in the regular season? This team has gone 20 straight years without having a losing record, but somehow, the NFL media keeps projecting this to be the case.

On paper, it's logical to believe that Tomlin's team could fall short of a .500 record in 2024. After the NFL schedule release, it's clear to see that the Steelers have a brutal stretch of games to close the season, and if they don't make significant improvements, they could fall flat. From Week 11 on, Pittsburgh has games against teams like the Ravens, Bengals, Eagles, Browns, and Chiefs.

Still, they've had far worse rosters and have still been able to exceed expectations. This year, their roster is significantly improved on paper. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are an easy upgrade at quarterback over Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, and the offensive line is completely retooled.

It's not absurd to project the Steelers with under 9 wins, but we simply haven't seen them fall below a .500 record in two decades. With jobs possibly on the line, if they don't get a playoff win this year, there's even more incentive not to have a losing season.

Until we see it happen, it's hard to project that this will be the fate of the Pittsburgh Steelers.