Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 season betting preview: Super Bowl odds, win total, prediction, prop bets and more

The Steelers finished 9-8 in 2022 but missed the playoffs and for all Mike Tomlin's regular season success, the Steelers haven't won a playoff game since 2016. Can Kenny Pickett and George Pickens take Pittsburgh back where it belongs in year 2?

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8)
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) / Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t know when the last time there was this much hype and excitement around the start of the season for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

It’s certainly been a little bit since they were an up-and-coming team and a dark horse Super Bowl pick, but after finishing 2022 7-2 after the bye week with Kenny Pickett orchestrating three fourth quarter comebacks with game-winning drives there’s plenty of excitement around his second year. 

Pickett to George Pickens could be the NFL’s next dynamic quarterback-wide receiver duo and Omar Khan’s first draft class looking like a loaded one, this could be the year the Steelers win their first playoff game since 2016. 

Betsided’s NFL betting expert Iain MacMillan made his best bet for the team in the 2023 season, and he’s not so high on Mike Tomlin’s team, but we have you covered with a full betting preview for the 2023 Steelers, from win total odds to season long props. 

The Steelers just missed the playoffs last year at 9-8 and for Tomlin to get another playoff win, he’ll need to get his team there first. Let’s get into the future’s market for Pittsburgh. 

Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl 58 Odds

The Steelers have the longest odds of any team in the AFC North and the sixth longest odds of any team in the AFC. They could be stuck in the toughest division in football and there’s a chance that they get lost in the shuffle in a loaded AFC. 

If they were in the other conference the Steelers would be a trendy Super Bowl bet like the Detroit Lions. The Steelers will need a serious second-year leap from Kenny Pickett, but what he showed at the end of last year was promising and I myself already have a Steelers Super Bowl ticket at +6000 from draft night. 

Pittsburgh Steelers win total prediction for the 2023 season

The win total is set at 8.5, but Vegas expects the Steelers to finish with at least nine wins because of the juice on the over. Mike Tomlin has never finished with a losing record in his 16 years as Head Coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, so that feels like a pretty safe bet. Even last year, with a brutally tough schedule in the first half they managed to win nine games despite starting Mitch Trubisky for six games and a rookie Kenny Pickett for the other 11. 

That’s all without mentioning the fact that TJ Watt was injured in Week 1 and only played 10 games. He certainly wasn’t himself for all 10 of those either. Their offensive line was the healthiest in football last year, so if the injury bug bites them there they could be in trouble, but they made moves up front to offset any regression there. 

I love this over. 

Key Steelers Offseason Moves

  • Signed offensive guards Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig
  • Traded for wide receiver Allen Robinson
  • Signed cornerback Patrick Peterson
  • Signed middle linebackers Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, and Kwon Alexander
  • Drafted offensive tackle Broderick Jones No. 14 overall
  • Drafted cornerback Joey Porter Jr. No. 32 overall
  • Re-Signed defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi
  • Re-Signed safety Damontae Kazee
  • Extended outside linebacker Alex Highsmith

The Steelers notable departures were mostly in the secondary where they lost Terrell Edmunds and Cameron Sutton, but they were both quickly replaced. They also overhauled middle linebacker after letting Devin Bush and Robert Spillane hit the road. 

The Steelers didn’t lose anything from their offensive line that was much improved that season, but they still added to that group and now have a ton of depth up front. 

With additions up front and bringing in Allen Robinson as the third receiver with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens Omar Khan has really built things up around Kenny Pickett. The front office has supported Pickett with this roster very nicely, the only concern is the offensive coordinator that is still in place.

Regardless of Matt Canada I’m betting the over on their win total.

Pittsburgh Steelers odds to win the AFC North

The Steelers are last in odds to win the AFC North, but I’d be very surprised to see them finish last even in this vaunted division. It’ll be tough for the Steelers to score with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals like we saw in Week 11 last year when the Bengals won 37-30 at Acrisure Stadium, but they match up well with the rest of the division. 

Pittsburgh Steelers odds to win the AFC

Best Pittsburgh Steelers season-long prop bet

I'm not sure that I like Pickens to lead the league in receiver yards this season, though I could potentially see it happening one day if he continues to develop. It's a fun longshot and I love pickens to go over his Receiving yards total which is set at 775.5 yards.

George Pickens has been setting the world on fire at training camp and his battles with Joey Porter Jr. feel like they’ll be legendary in retrospect. Pickens finished last year with 801 receiving yards on 52 catches in the 24th ranked passing offense in football. The Steelers will be more willing to let Pickett throw the ball this year after having handcuffs on him and the offense for most of 2022. 

That will open things up for Pickens who was second in the NFL in catch rate over expectation at +10.6% CROE. He isn’t one for getting much separation, but he wins nearly every jump ball and Pickett is continually learning to trust him to come down with the ball. Pickens will need to diversify his route tree because he led the NFL in go-routes last year and didn’t run much else. It was effective, but to take the next step he will need more and I fully expect that this year. 

Pickens will be the Steelers No. 1 receiver this year and barring injury he won’t be under 1,000 yards for a season maybe until he’s 30+ years old. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change