Steelers can't fall into the QB trap with Kenny Pickett

The Steelers have their quarterback of the foreseeable future on the roster in Kenny Pickett, but the team has to be on notice after the recent streak of new quarterback deals. It is no secret that the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. The team’s with the best players there are consistently competing for and winning the Super Bowl.

That is a small percentage of teams though, and most franchises fall into two other categories. One is looking for their guy, which usually makes up the bottom of the league. The other is teams that are trying to get by with mediocre quarterbacks. That isn’t a position that you can compromise though.

That doesn’t mean that teams don’t value these middling quarterbacks. As evident by the recent streak of these types of quarterbacks receiving new deals, teams will do whatever they can to potentially secure a winning quarterback. If you want to be a Super Bowl contender though, you need an elite quarterback.

What do these new deals look like

While some quarterbacks are receiving monumental deals, the recent money for these middle-of-the-road players is still astounding. Derek Carr got a deal averaging 37.5 million a season and is essentially locked to the Saints for the next three years. Daniel Jones got 40 million a season and is locked in for at least three seasons. Even Geno Smith, the definition of a journeyman, got a new deal with the Seahawks for similar money.

All of these quarterbacks have had some level of success, but they have been inconsistent and haven’t consistently delivered their franchise wins and playoff berths. None of them have made it to the Super Bowl either. They have done just enough to win sometimes, and have some talent, but lack the traits of an elite quarterback.

This type of move isn’t uncommon either. Blake Bortles netted a sizable deal from the Jaguars after some success. Teams are desperate to hold unto a quarterback once they find one that isn’t horrible. At the end of the day though, deals like this rarely work out.

The Jones deal looks horrible on paper, as he didn’t even play that great but the Giants as a whole were a more competitive team. The Smith contract is harder to gauge as the details of the deal haven’t been released, but I doubt he lives up to the deal when it is all said and done.

Carr has the best potential to work out and help the Saints to the playoffs, but that is more due to the roster he is inheriting and the division he will be playing in. Even then, I doubt we see any of these three names in the Super Bowl, as the quarterback play will eventually be a hindrance on the team. That won’t stop them from eating a huge amount of salary cap space.

Why the Steelers should be warned

If you followed me through the draft last season, I wasn’t high on Pickett because I didn’t see that high of a ceiling on him. He seemed like a safe quarterback that could win you some games, but not a true difference-maker. Carr was a popular comparison for him, but I saw a prime Andy Dalton as an even better reference.

His rookie season certainly wasn’t anything special. He flashed some great play at times, but he struggled with consistency and never really had that breakout game. This wasn't all his fault, but his rookie season left me wanting more. That doesn’t mean the team should cut bait and move on, but he needs to be on notice. I want to see some real change in his second season (as should everyone).

Assuming he makes some strides next year (if he doesn’t, then a different conversation needs to happen), he won’t be out of the woods next. We need to see that difference-maker in him. It doesn’t have to be next season, but Pickett needs to grow into a true top quarterback before I would be willing to give him a new deal.

Assuming he progresses, that means using the entirety of his rookie deal and even the franchise tag if need be. If in that span he is regularly leading the Steelers offense to the playoffs and competing for Super Bowls, by all means, back up the brinks truck and pay the man. If he has a track record like Carr or Jones though, then a long-term deal would be foolish.

I’m curious how the three deals will work out this offseason, but if I had to guess, I don’t think any of them lead to a Super Bowl for their respective teams. Playing this game is low risk, low reward, and each of these teams will likely be looking for an upgrade at quarterback within the next few seasons as they try to clear the cap space from these bad deals.

Time will tell what the Steelers have in Pickett, but there are three options of what he could turn into. He could flame out or become a top name in the position. If that’s the case, there isn’t much question about what the team should do with him. If he falls into the middle of the pack like a Carr or Jones, the Steelers can’t get trapped by hitching themselves to him long-term.