Steelers nosedive below .500 in playoff predictor simulation of the 2024 season

I ran 10 simulations for the Steelers' 2024 season, and the results are worse than anyone is predicting.
Pittsburgh Steelers OTA Offseason Workout
Pittsburgh Steelers OTA Offseason Workout / Joe Sargent/GettyImages

Predicting the Steelers record each year doesn't require a rocket scientist. While we may not always hit it on the head, it's very easy to come within a game or two.

This is largely because we know who this team is, how they are led, and what to expect. We all know that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record since taking over as the Steelers' head coach back in 2007. But year after year, the mainstream media and oddsmakers alike assume that Pittsburgh will drop below .500 -- snapping their two-decade streak without a losing season.

Now there is a tool for predicting NFL records and which teams will wind up in the playoffs.

Sportskeeda developed an NFL Playoff Predictor that allows you to simulate the season and take a look at the final standings (much like you would on Madden). However, it's clear there are some kinks that need to be ironed out.

I ran 10 simulations for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024. Here is their final record after each simulation using the playoff predictor:

Steelers record predictions using NFL Playoff Predictor:

  • Simulation 1: Final record of 6-11
  • Simulation 2: Final record of 7-10
  • Simulation 3: Final record of 4-13
  • Simulation 4: Final record of 8-9
  • Simulation 5: Final record of 7-10
  • Simulation 6: Final record of 7-10
  • Simulation 7: Final record of 10-7
  • Simulation 8: Final record of 6-11
  • Simulation 9: Final record of 8-9
  • Simulation 10: Final record of 5-12

Talk about a blow to the gut! In these 10 simulations, the Pittsburgh Steelers recorded a record of at or above .500 just one time. Their lowest predicted record in a season came in my third simulation of ten when the Sportskeeda NFL Playoff Predictor had the Steelers going 4-13 on the season -- a record that's hard to fathom under Mike Tomlin.

In these ten simulations, the Steelers had an average record of 6.8-10.2. Let that sink in for a moment. Pittsburgh averaged double-digit losses in ten simulations.

The seventh simulated season was the only one in which the Steelers earned a winning record. It was also the only season that Pittsburgh recorded a positive point differential and did not finish last in the AFC North.

Take this with a grain of salt. Yes, the Steelers have one of the toughest schedules in the league on paper and they are not guaranteed to finish with a ten-win season like they did last year. But even if things don't go their way, it's absurd to think that they will be good for 6-7 wins in 2024.

When you look at the roster on paper, the Steelers have improved at nearly every position. Omar Khan beefed up the offensive line in the NFL Draft and added a pair of talented linebackers in Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson.

Most importantly, the Steelers are finally free of a despicable Matt Canada and Kenny Pickett combination that resulted in one of the league's worst offenses over the past two seasons. The collection of OC Arthur Smith and QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields should prove to be far more than what they've had.

Because their schedule is so brutal in 2024, I can envision a scenario where the streak of non-losing seasons is snapped this year. However, predicting the Pittsburgh Steelers to suddenly plummet well below .500 when they haven't had a losing record in 20 years is complete malpractice.