Steelers Super Bowl odds (Pickett's development is key to Pittsburgh)

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8)
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) / Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Now that the season is over, the NFL Draft is one of the next things on everybody’s mind and at one point in the 2022 season the Pittsburgh Steelers looked like they’d be picking at the very top of the 2023 draft. The Steelers lost TJ Watt in Week 1 and fell to 2-7 before Watt returned and Kenny Pickett turned it on. The Steelers had a chance to make the playoffs in Week 18, but Joe Flacco decided to torment Pittsburgh one last time. Flacco and the Jets failed to score a touchdown in a loss to the Dolphins, costing the Steelers a postseason berth.

Mike Tomlin continued his streak of non-losing seasons with a 9-8 year, but Pittsburgh failed to make the playoffs and that also extended Tomlin’s streak of years without a playoff win to six.

We’ve seen second year starting quarterbacks make the Super Bowl in each of the last two seasons with Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts (3rd season, 2nd as starter). Could Kenny Pickett be the next and bring coach Tomlin and the Steelers back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2011, or win it for the first time since 2009. 

The Super Bowl 58 odds are already out and it doesn’t seem like Vegas thinks Pickett will take the next step. 

Super Bowl 58 odds

Steelers around teams with QB questions marks

At +5500 odds, the Steelers are a pretty substantial longshot to win the Super Bowl and with 11 AFC teams ahead of them, Oddsmakers don'’t even like their chances to make it to the playoffs. The teams closest to Pittsburgh are the Raiders, Giants, Panthers, Patriots, and Commanders. Out of those teams the Steelers are far and away the most confident about their quarterback situation. 

Pickett looked like a rookie in his first few starts, particularly a rookie who was hamstrung by an overly-conservative head coach and an incompetent offensive coordinator. However, the Steelers closed the year on a 7-2 run after their bye week and did it with improved play calling, an improved running game and Pickett’s fourth quarter heroics. Pickett led four game-winning drives from week 9 on including in Week 15 and 16 against the Raiders and more importantly the Ravens in Baltimore. From Week 12 on, Pickett had an 88.5 passing grade on PFF, second to only Joe Burrow over that stretch. 

The Steelers need to improve their offensive line and add a wide receiver this offseason, but most importantly they need to keep TJ Watt healthy. Pittsburgh was 8-2 in games Watt played and 1-6 without him. If Pickett makes the second year jump into a high-level quarterback that I expect him to make, then there is value betting the Steelers as a longshot even in a crowded AFC. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change