Analytics are growing in popularity in the NFL, and it's not hard to see why. No longer do fans only have access to box score numbers, but advanced statistics give us a clearer picture of how efficient players have been on the field. Unfortunately, there are a few analytics that work against Steelers star T.J. Watt.
Watt, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, fell short of earning his second DPOY honors in 2023, as the award ultimately went to All-Pro edge rusher, Myles Garrett. The number one overall draft choice in 2017 put up excellent numbers in the analytics department with an outstanding pass-rush win rate and double team rate.
These new-age analytics no doubt influenced the Associated Press in their DPOY votes, and advanced data like double-team rates aren't going away anytime soon.
Through the first three weeks of the 2024 season, Watt has a double-team rate of just 10 percent, according to ESPN Analytics. This stat suggests that Watt only crosses paths with two blockers one-tenth of the time. In comparison, far less talented players oddly have significantly higher double-team rates.
It's time for the first win rate chart of the year!
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 26, 2024
Double team rate when pass rushing as an edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y).
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/1wdbcOgkKi
For example, the data suggests that David Ojabo of the Ravens has been double-teamed on 20 percent of his pass rush snaps through the first three weeks of the season. Meanwhile, rookie Jared Verse has supposedly been doubled on 21 percent of his snaps when getting after the quarterback.
Somethings smells fishy about all of this... and we are finding out the fallacies of this statistic.
T.J. Watt has been more impressive than his double-team rate suggests
It's impossible to properly evaluate a football player from any position using one or two statistics or pieces of advanced data. Instead, picture a pie chart representing a player. Within the chart, the biggest cut of the pie represents what we see on film and the other slices represent numerous statistics, analytics, and advanced data.
Double-team rate isn't the 'say all, be all' of determining which edge rushers are the best, but it's a statistic used to judge players.
Watt, meanwhile, has been far more impressive than a faulable double-team percentage suggests.
In a back-and-forth exchange on 'X', Audibles & Analytics podcast host Jon Ledyard debated ESPN analytics expert Seth Walder to figure out why Watt's double-team rate is so criminally low. As it turns out, a player must be engaged in a double-team for a minimum of 0.4 seconds to count toward the statistic. Thus, most times when opposing offenses chip Watt with a tight end or running back, it does not count as a double-team.
Though the attention Watt draws may not always constitute as a double-team by definition, routinely using a TE or RB to chip one of the best defensive players in the NFL should count for something, right?
Fortunately, it does.
Pro Football Focus is now charting the percentage in which pass rushers are 'chipped' with an extra blocker. At an eye-popping 44.05 percent, Watt leads the NFL in this analytic... and it's not close. The next player on the list is Denver's Jonathan Cooper at 22.86 percent.
Meanwhile, notable NFL stars like Maxx Crosby (20.00 percent), Myles Garrett (18.29 percent), and Micah Parsons (16.28 percent) trail Watt in this department by a mile.
This is where the discrepancy comes from in this charting. While double-team rates and win percentages are important factors to consider, there's far more that goes into the evaluation process when determining which edge rushers are playing the best.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a bonafide Hall of Famer in T.J. Watt, and though he might not be truly 'double-teamed' as much as some players in the league, he finds his way to make his presence felt every game -- even with being chipped at a league-high rate.