While I may not be the biggest fan of the actual NFL schedule release, us now knowing when and who the Steelers will be playing allows me to make my initial win/loss prediction. While I don’t prescribe to the idea of a fair/unfair schedule, Pittsburgh’s certainly looks like a doozy. In this post, I’ll be going week by week and making a win or loss prediction. At the end of the post, I’ll have my final record prediction.
With that all said, here is my way-to-early Steelers record prediction.
Steelers Week 1: at Falcons
This will be an extremely interesting matchup. Arthur Smith’s former team will hope to get some revenge after three lackluster years with him at the helm, and the Steelers will need to capitalize on as many early games as possible with a grueling stretch at the end of the season.
While I expect the Falcons to be much improved with Kirk Cousins at the helm, I’m not sure the instant chemistry will be there. This could especially be the case if he is still rehabbing for most of the offseason. This could lead to a slow start as he gets used to his new team and new weapons.
Last year notwithstanding, the Steelers have also been ok in week one games on the road. I don’t see it with the Falcons defense, and I could see this new offense show some early sparks while the defense benefits from an early lull for Atlanta. I’ll take Pittsburgh in this opening bout.
Steelers record: 1-0
Steelers Week 2: at Broncos
On the flip side of things, Pittsburgh should be viewed as the favorites against the Broncos given Denver’s struggles in recent years and the fact that they will have a rookie quarterback at the helm. Despite this being a double road start to the season, neither opponent is that formidable for the Steelers.
That said, I could see the momentum gained in week one cooling off with a poor showing here. The Russell Wilson revenge game talk will dominate most of the media, and I think it could prove a distraction. Chalk this one up as a classic “They really should have won that game” in week two.
Steelers record: 1-1
Steelers Week 3: Chargers
After a letdown game in week two, the Steelers get back on the right track against the Chargers. I expect Los Angeles to be good this year, but Justin Herbert struggles in close games and finishing in big moments. In what I would assume is a close game, I don’t think he does enough to pull out the win.
Steelers record 2-1
Steelers Week 4: at Colts
I expect the Colts to be an improved team in 2024, and I think Anthony Richardson could make his move into the top-12 conversation at the position. That said, I’m not sure they are quite ready to make a run, and I could see Pittsburgh winning here as they match up well.
Having to play Lamar Jackson twice a season has actually made the Steelers competent at stopping running quarterbacks. It won’t be a cakewalk by any means, but I have Pittsburgh winning two in a row early this season.
Steelers record: 3-1
Steelers Week 5: Cowboys
This is the first game I really don’t have a great feel for. Dallas has been one of the better teams in recent years during the regular season, but they have also lost a fair bit of talent this offseason. On the flip side of things, they haven’t added a lot of elite talent to their roster to replace what they lost.
This is the first prime-time game though, and Pittsburgh shows up to these. I also think the Cowboys could face a lot of distractions with some impending contracts that could limit them during the regular season. I’ll give the nod to the Steelers, but this is a coin flip.
Steelers record: 4-1
Steelers Week 6: at Raiders
This is the easiest game for me to predict, and it is a loss. Everything lines up perfectly here. The Steelers will be on a small winning streak and going against the Raiders, who will likely be in contention for one of the worst teams in the league. The game is on the road, and Pittsburgh has been notoriously bad against the Raiders when they are the away team.
The good times stop here as the Steelers lose one of their patented that they should have easily won. Their record is still respectable, but this will be a frustrating loss that seems almost like a lock sitting here in May.
Steelers record: 4-2
Steelers Week 7: Jets
This is another toss-up. I think the Jets will be dynamic with good quarterback play and a talented and deep receiver room with a fine defense to boot. Will Aaron Rodgers still look like himself though, or will his age and injury catch up to him?
Ultimately, I think he gets New York back on track and makes them a legitimate competitor this year. This is a game I could see the Steelers winning, but I think the Jets will be too good to keep up with at this stage in the season.
Steelers record: 4-3
Steelers Week 8: Giants
Another team likely vying for the first overall pick, the Giants seem to be in a state of stagnation in recent years. With Daniel Jones at the helm, they lack the elite quarterback play to be great and the cap space to make big moves because of his contract. I don’t see a path for them to be very good.
With that in mind, I think the Steelers get a relatively easy win hear heading into their bye week. It is hard for me to imagine New York putting up much of a fight in this game, and Pittsburgh heads into their bye week with a strong record.
Steelers record: 5-3
Steelers Week 10: at Commanders
The Steelers have a tendency to look ahead in games. Heck, they have even admitted to this in the past. The bye week is right before their tough end-stretch of the season, but before they get into that, they need to play Washington.
I don’t expect Washington to be very good but with a critical matchup against the Ravens the following week, I could see the lackluster version of this team surfacing. I’m calling the upset here in typical, frustrating Steelers fashion.
Steelers record: 5-4
Steelers Week 11: Ravens
After falling victim to looking ahead, the Steelers gear up for their first divisional game of the year. Any game against the Ravens is always going to be a tough one that causes this team to be physically drained by the end. I expect no different this season.
That said, Pittsburgh has done well against the Ravens in the past, and I could foresee the same thing happening this year. Looking ahead may have cost them in week 10, but they get back to their winning ways in their first matchup with Baltimore.
Steelers record: 6-4
Steelers Week 12: at Browns
A short week on the road against a division rival after a Ravens game? It doesn’t matter what I think of the Browns this year, I can’t see the Steelers winning this one. I expect the game to be an ugly one, but an ugly one that Cleveland ultimately wins.
Steelers record: 6-5
Steelers Week 13: at Cincinnati
The benefit of a short week is that you get an extended break after to prepare for your next game. While the Bengals are no easy opponent, I think that extra time will be critical for this team following a small but tough stretch. The Bengals can’t find a way to win at home and the Steelers get back into the win column.
Steelers record: 7-5
Steelers Week 14: Browns
A tight turnaround for their rematch with the Browns (although the rest of the divisional games aren’t much more spaced out), I would predict Pittsburgh splitting with most of the AFC North, and Cleveland is no exception. The Steelers win the second round with their foe and approach another winning record.
Steelers record: 8-5
Steelers Week 15: at Eagles
That winning record doesn’t materialize in week 15 though. The Eagles are such a hard team to play against. They have some of the best trench play in the league and have added some big splash players on defense while retaining their stars on offense.
This is a game I expect will get away from the Steelers. While their offense should be better this year, high-scoring games will likely still be their nemesis as they lack the firepower to keep up with the top offenses in the league.
Steelers record: 8-6
Steelers Week 16: at Ravens
I’ll stretch my neck out a little and call for the sweep this year. The game won’t be a blowout by any means, these bouts never are, but Pittsburgh has had the Ravens' number over the past few seasons. I think they squeak out the win in another grueling and physical game.
Steelers record: 9-6
Steelers Week 17: Chiefs
Another short week following the Ravens and against the defending Super Bowl champions?
Steelers record: 9-7
Steelers Week 18: Bengals
The last week of the season is never easy to predict. You’ll never know who is playing for what and what teams have benched their starters. I’ll base this on both teams still being in the hunt, so they are both doing whatever they can to win.
Like before, Pittsburgh has the benefit of a long break before the final game of the regular season, so I’ll give them a slight edge. That said, this is another coin flip for me due to all of the uncertainty.
Steelers record: 10-7