T.J. Watt's DPOY odds are irrationally high after quiet November

When you look at T.J. Watt's legendary career to date, there's no question the Steelers star is deserving of hoisting a pair of Defensive Player of the Year trophies. Watt was arguably the biggest defensive difference maker in the NFL in 2019 when cornerback Stephon Gilmore won the DPOY award, and in 2020, he fished as the runner-up to future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald.

Watt earned his only Defensive Player of the Year honor in 2021 after tying Michael Strahan's single-season sack record with 22.5 sacks. When you look at the big picture and the unrivaled success he's had, it's almost hard to believe Watt doesn't have another DPOY under his belt.

The All-Pro defender could be set to earn his second Defensive Player of the Year award after the 2024 season, but the circumstances are... bizarre.

While nobody is arguing that Watt's career isn't good enough for a DPOY award, what he's done this season may not warrant the recognition he's been getting from oddsmakers.

Entering Week 13, Watt has +105 odds to win the Defensive Player of the Year award, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. In comparison, Will Anderson Jr. is second in the running with +1100 odds while Danielle Hunter (+1400) and Xavier McKinney (+1400) are tied for third. Superstars Myles Garrett and Dexter Lawrence are distant long shots due to their team's lack of success this year.

T.J. Watt's DPOY odds feel too good to be true

I'm all for T.J. Watt earning his second DPOY honor, but the fact that his odds are so much better than the next player on the list is hard to make sense of.

From a raw numbers perspective, Watt has just 7.5 sacks in 11 games this year, and he's not earning pressure on the quarterback at a high rate. According to PFF, Watt currently ranks 57th in pressures (29), 127th in hurries (9), 11th in sacks, and 42nd in pass-rush win rate (13.6 percent).

In Watt's defense, the Steelers' superstar is being chipped at a league-high rate entering the final six games of the season. However, when chipped, Watt has almost been completely neutralized.

His month of November was particularly quiet. Since Pittsburgh's Week 9 bye, Watt recorded just one sack to go with seven total pressures and three hurries. This is the last thing that Steelers fans expected to see.

Surprisingly, Watt's DPOY odds remain mostly unaltered. Pittsburgh's 8-3 record and top-10 defense unquestionably attribute to this, but Watt's lack of production make his runaway odds head-scratching.

Meanwhile, there are several strong candidates for Defensive Player of the Year this season. Packers safety Xavier McKinney already has seven interceptions and 111 INT return yards in 11 games while the Packers boast an 8-3 record identical to Pittsburgh's. Additionally, Myles Garrett unquestionably had a greater impact than Watt in the Steelers vs. Browns game in Week 12.

If Watt has another quiet month in December, it's reasonable to believe the odds could shift drastically in favor of the field. At the same time, the Steelers' edge rusher may be able to lock up the award with a few dominant performances over the final six games.

Watt is on pace for just 11.5 sacks this season, which would be the sixth-best mark in his NFL career. If he wins the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2024, it will be met with controversy.