Come this time every year, I approach the thought of the Steelers how Santa’s workshop approached that of Christmas in the movie Elf: It’s over, so now is already the time to start working on next year. I feel one of the best ways to do that when still so new to the offseason is giving a way-too-early floor and ceiling for how Pittsburgh might do in its next go at the Lombardi—so that’s what we’re going to do today.
Before we begin though, I wish to remind you of two things worth keeping in mind. One is that this little activity is labeled “way-too-early” for a reason; a lot can/will change between now and when next season starts, so obviously nothing you read here is meant to be some rock-solid take to carry into September.
The other thing is that people always seem to get hung up on either the floor or ceiling without even stopping to consider what the heck those are. The floor is the absolute worst the 2025-26 Steelers could ever do, and the ceiling is the absolute best. So you probably shouldn’t be scoffing at either one as if they’re some official prediction for exactly how I think our guys are going to perform.
Alrighty, with all that out of the way, let’s get started.
Floor: 4-13 record
I know that sounds a bit extreme, but the Steelers have an absolutely brutal strength-of-schedule next season, and if they play their toughies like they have recently, it’s not going to be pretty.
Just consider how relentless some of these opponents could be: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Detroit (on the road), the Chargers (on the road), Buffalo, Green Bay, Minnesota. Each of those guys are either troublesome divisional rivals, playoff teams, or both. If you believe the Steelers can’t lose to any of them, you’re simply lying to yourself, and again, the point of a floor is to show how a team may look after losing every game it realistically can. Therefore, let’s put all of these down as losses.
From there, we have hit-or-miss games, games that may not be the biggest or badest on the schedule, but especially when considering Pittsburgh’s finicky behavior in recent years, they are in no way guaranteed wins. Examples of these for next season would be Cleveland (just once), Miami, Indianapolis, and Seattle.
The more ridiculous half of those picks have to be the Browns and Colts, but they both beat the Steelers THIS season, so if you take issue with their inclusion, take it up with the ol’ black-and-yellow itself.
That leaves just the other meeting with Cleveland, and road trips to Chicago, New England, and the Jets in Pittsburgh’s win column, but even that has less to do with some Steel City greatness and more to do with each of those franchises being in such disarray today. That’s how we get to 4-13.
Ceiling: 13-4
As for my verdict on the ceiling, this record comes from that four-win Pittsburgh trading with the Ravens and sweeping the Bengals and Browns.
On top of that, the three other hit-or-miss games that we previously had going against the Steelers now fall in their favor, bumping that win total up to 11. Last but not least, simply toss in a couple of fluke wins like what Pittsburgh just had over Denver and Washington (I think they’d be Green Bay and at LA this time around) and we hit 13-4.
That means I have Pittsburgh’s insurmountable games being the ones at Baltimore and Detroit, along with the visits from Buffalo and Minnesota. But hey, when knowing how formidable those teams have been as of late, there would certainly be no shame in struggling with them.
As always, the likely outcome is that the Steelers finish somewhere between those two records, particularly around 9-8 or 10-7. That may be an encouraging vision for some and a disappointing one for some others, but just think about it like this: Either way, we won’t be winning another Super Bowl as long as Mike Tomlin is leading the charge, so who even cares?