The Steelers have a long list of pending free agents, and while some with be targets to bring back, it seems like there will be quite a few notable names that will walk. With free agency just around the corner, I wanted to go player by player and see what their value could be on the open market as well as what it would cost for Pittsburgh to keep them.
We are kicking this list off with one of the most notable names set to become a free agent: Russell Wilson. His Steelers story is well documented. He started things off with a bang and looked like a great fit in this offense. He fell apart down the stretch and lost the last five straight games of the season.
That said, quarterback options aren’t readily available, and the market is always hot. Wilson showed enough to be contending for a starter role somewhere, and his style of play fits in with what the team has wanted on offense. If Pittsburgh wants to keep him, it won’t be cheap, and it will likely require a multi-year commitment.
Steelers market value for Russell Wilson
Over the Cap Value: 15.748 million per year
Spotrac Value: 38.7 million per year
Similar contracts: Kirk Cousins (45 million); Baker Mayfield (33.33 million); Derek Carr (37.5 million)
Wilson’s contract has got to be one of the hardest ones to gauge this offseason. When he was playing at his best, 40-45 million seemed like the floor of his next deal. Following the struggle to end the year, that value has decreased. With quarterbacks in such a short supply though, he won’t come cheap.
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Over the Cap is always conservative with its valuations. It would be shocking to see Wilson playing for that low of a price next year. While Spotrac is a little high for my taste, I feel like it is closer in range to a former starter that was cast off. Add in the Steelers need to ink Wilson to a deal before he enters free agency and a competitive deal is necessary to retain him.
Steelers deal needed for Wilson: 3-year, 94.5 million dollar deal (31.5 APY), 33 million signing bonus, 43 million total guaranteed
Let's break down what this looks like for both sides. I feel like Wilson will want to have a two-year commitment at least. This deal essentially gives him that between the signing bonus and additional guaranteed salary, he would carry a negative cap charge if cut through two seasons. That said, if things really went south, you could still cut him for about a 2.5 million dollar cap hit.
Pittsburgh has shown a willingness to guarantee second-year salaries for quarterbacks only, and Wilson benefits from that. He gets roughly 30 percent of year two locked up which makes him more difficult to cut. The hope is that you get two serviceable seasons and then have a big decision in year three as to keep him or move on.
A structured deal like this gives Wilson a first-year cap hit of 12.5 million dollars, a very manageable number to work with. Year two jumps to 39 million and year three climbs to 43 million. It buys the Steelers time to find a long-term solution and if he rebounds, he can play the next few seasons here.
While I have soured on Wilson’s play due to his collapse, a deal like this would be intriguing. You get him for a low cap hit this year, and if he continues to fall flat, you can cut him next year with minimal damage. It buys you time to find a drafted option to replace him.
At the end of the day though, I think Pittsburgh is more inclined to part ways with Wilson right now. You can bet on the younger traits with Justin Fields or go in a completely new direction at the position. Even on a fair contract like this, I’m under the impression that Wilson won’t be back next year, although I could live with a deal like this.
Prediction: Wilson and the Steelers break up, and he signs a deal similar to this elsewhere.