Percent chance of Steelers offensive players making the team

The Steelers have a many players whose jobs are not secure. For those with a shot, here are the percent chances of making the team in 2019.

The unfortunate truth about the NFL is that nearly half of the players who will wear that Steelers practice jersey in training camp will not be part of the team in 2019.

NFL teams are required to cut their 90-man rosters down to 53 players before the start of the season. For returning starters and role players, their jobs are safe on the team. For everyone else, it’s an entirely different story.

A labeled a percent chance of each projected non-starter on offense to make the Steelers roster in 2019. Here is what I came up with:

100% chance

Matt Feiler, RT

B.J. Finney, OG

Diontae Johnson, WR

Chukwuma Okorafor, OT

James Washington, WR

Donte Moncrief, WR

Jaylen Samuels, RB

Benny Snell, RB

Mason Rudolph, QB

Josh Dobbs, QB

Xavier Grimble, TE

If you were worried that any one of these players wouldn’t make the roster in 2019, leave no doubt. The following names are cemented in for the 2019 season.

James Washington struggled last season, but the former 2nd round draft choice will secure a roster spot. The Steelers always keep three quarterbacks on hand, so Dobbs and Rudolph aren’t going anywhere.

95% chance

Roosevelt Nix

Even with fullback being a dying position in today’s NFL, it’s highly unlikely that Roosevelt Nix is going anywhere. He is locked up under a relatively cheap deal until 2021. It’s interesting that the Steelers were trying out Sutton Smith at fullback during mini camp though.

85% chance

Ryan Switzer, WR

Contrary to popular belief, Switzer’s job isn’t entirely secure. There is a surplus of slot options in Pittsburgh, and there is an outside chance they could elect to go with just Eli Rogers. It’s possible the Steelers look for depth elsewhere, but I think Switzer is on the roster this season.

80% chance

Zach Gentry, TE

The 5th round draft choice of 2019 is the beneficiary of not having much competition at the position. Grimble is currently locked in as the team’s number two option at tight end, but Gentry is the clear front-runner for the 3rd and final spot. It won’t come guaranteed though, and he will have to be competent in camp.

75% chance

Eli Rogers, WR

I think there is a solid chance that the Steelers keep both slot receivers this year. However, I give Rogers a slightly worse chance of making the team than Switzer. The Steelers gave up a draft pick exchange for Ryan Switzer and he is two years younger than Rogers. Rogers is also more expensive, and Pittsburgh could save more by cutting him.

50% chance

Jerald Hawkins, OT

Derwin Gray, OT

This is likely going to be a ‘two dogs, one bone’ situation this preseason, as there is likely only one offensive line spot remaining. Hawkins has more experience, but has been injured for most of his career, while Gray is younger and healthy. It will be an interesting battle to watch during camp this year.

15% chance

Johnny Holton, WR

Christian Scotland-Williamson, TE

This is a big dip in percentage, but everyone else is really on the outside looking in. Holton has a chance to be the replacement to Darrius Heyward-Bey as a gunner and special teams stud, but provides very little on offense. At the same time, Scotland-Williamson, a former rugby player, has a year under his belt and an outside chance to beat out rookie, Zach Gentry.

10% chance

Diontae Spencer, WR

There is another Diontae drawing some buzz this offsesaon. The former CFL star has a chance to impress, but the 5’8” receiver has a massive uphill battle against Ryan Switzer and Eli Rogers to crack the roster. He will be fun to watch, but his chances are slim.

5% chance

Kevin Rader, TE

Patrick Morris, OG

Garrett Brumfield, OG

Trey Edmunds, RB

Zach Banner, OT

Trevor Wood, TE

These players have virtually no chance of making the team due to the guys in front of them, but there is just a glimmer of hope for each. Gentry isn’t locked into the 3rd tight end spot as a 5th round draft choice, so Rader or Wood could have an outside chance.

It’s unlikely Steelers keep another backup guard outside of Finney, and the Steelers never keep more than 3 running backs. Banner would have to outplay both Derwin Gray and Jerald Hawkins for a shot to make the team.

When we break it down, we can tell with pretty good accuracy which players will be with the team, and which ones will not. However, there are always a few close calls in there. Anything can happen during training camp, and injuries may occur, which would change these percentages. It will be interesting to see who wins out this season.