History suggests Steelers 2022 first round draft pick will disappoint

The Steelers have developed a somewhat predictable pattern with respect to first-round draft picks

So, my soon-to-be twenty-four old son and I were talking about the impending Steelers 2022 draft and he said this to me: “Dad, have you noticed that when we draft a good player in the first round one year, we usually draft a player who disappoints the following year?”

Honestly, I really had not noticed a pattern, but if you look back in retrospect, I would offer that there is a somewhat predictable pattern with respect to our drafting a good player one year then ‘missing’ on the player whom we draft the following year.

While this pattern is by no means scientific, if you take a layperson’s approach to the Steelers first-round picks since 2012, I think you will arrive at the same conclusion that I have arrived, which is this: We will draft a player in the first round of the 2022 draft who will disappoint.

The Steelers have a pattern of ‘hits’ and ‘misses’ in the first round since the 2012 draft

In the 2012 NFL draft, we drafted David DeCastro, a six-time Pro Bowler, and two-time All-Pro.  I think it’s fair to say that he was a ‘hit’.  In the 2013 NFL draft, we drafted Jarvis Jones, who made zero Pro Bowls in his four-year Steelers career.  I think it’s fair to say he was a ‘miss’.

In the 2016 NF draft, we selected Artie Burns, who played four seasons for us, started thirty-two games, and had four INTs.  I think it’s fair to say he was a ‘miss’.  In 2017, we drafted T.J. Watt, who most recently won Defensive Player of the Year.  No shock that Watt was a ‘hit’ and was a big one at that.

To further illustrate the pattern, in 2018, we drafted Terrell Edmunds, who, at the time of this discussion, is currently a free agent.  I would say that Edmunds was solid from the perspective that he was durable over the course of his four-year Steelers career, but has he done anything remarkable?

In 2019, the Steelers drafted Devin Bush, Jr.  While the jury is still out on Bush, I would say that he is leaning more towards being a ‘miss’ than being a ‘hit’.  Since we did not have a first-round pick in 2020, let’s fast forward to the 2021 NFL draft.

Last year, we drafted Najee Harris, who was named to the Pro Bowl. Not too shabby for a rookie.  Harris rushed for twelve hundred yards and had seventy-four receptions for four-hundred and sixty-seven yards.  Again, not too shabby for a rookie.

Again, the jury is out on Harris, but I think it’s fair to say the Steelers made the right decision with our first-round pick.  So how will the Steelers 2022 first-round pick pan out?  No one can predict that at this point.  Honestly, we need whoever the first-round pick will be to pan out as 2022 is a season where questions abound and answers may not be forthcoming.

Unfortunately, I think the cards may be stacked against our 2022 first-round pick.  If we draft a player whom we believe can help us this year and that player does help us be successful this year, great.  If we draft a player whom we believe can contribute this year and that player does not contribute, then what?

Again, I really hope the Steelers draft well in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft; however, history suggests we will not.  If that comes to pass, it would be a tragedy and will set us back yet another year at the very least.