As Steelers fans declare that it is Kenny Pickett season, here is a brief reminder that he isn’t the same quarterback as another divisional rival.
The Steelers have latched themselves to Kenny Pickett for the immediate future, and even though his rookie season had some lows, it is the right move this offseason. That said, let’s not start running away with what the team may have in Pickett just yet.
One of the names that consistently gets thrown around with Pickett as a comparison is Joe Burrow. On the surface, there are some similarities. Both Burrow and Pickett have similar measurements (besides Burrow’s hands being bigger), and both were experienced college quarterbacks entering the league as 24-year-old rookies.
For fans that have been watching the Bengals, and more specifically the success that they have had in the playoffs over the past two seasons, the idea of Pickett being like Burrow is great. A proven winner that can take their team the distance, who wouldn’t want that? That said, let’s pump the breaks on these comparisons.
Are there similarities beyond just their physical measurements? Sure; neither has huge arms and both have good, not great, athleticism. I think the best trait both have are their composure and leadership traits. Neither gets shaken in the pocket and both have proven to make some clutch plays no matter the situation.
The Steelers don’t have Burrow
Let’s really dig into their individual rookie seasons though. Both teams had eerily similar situations. A young rookie receiver that played well (Tee Higgins and George Pickens) and a miserable offensive line. Joe Mixon suffered an injury so the Steelers boasted a better running offense, but Burrow overall had the better-passing weapons with an aging A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd around.
Their stats tell a different tale. Burrow started ten games and accumulated 2,688 yards to go along with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Pickett started 12 games (played in 13 total) and had 2,404 yards with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. Despite playing fewer games, Burrow statistically lapped Pickett.
Let’s dig a little further. Burrow was a more efficient and effective passer, averaging nearly 80 yards more a game through the air than Pickett. He did all of that while getting sacked more often, again, in fewer total games played. So don’t come crying and saying that the offensive line limited Pickett, as the same argument could be made for Burrow.
What’s really damaging is the adjusted yards per pass attempt. This stat takes into account passing yards, scores, and interceptions and compares them to total passing attempts. The higher the average the better the passing offense and most teams shoot for an average rating of 6.0. Burrow had a healthy 6.7 AY/A as a rookie. Pickett, on the other hand, was a measly 5.5.
The reason for that is simple. While I believe Burrow has a slightly stronger arm, he was also far more accurate in the middle and deep passing game than Pickett. I was wholly disappointed with Pickett in that area, as he consistently missed the mark on passes over ten yards.
There is a different Bengals quarterback the Steelers should be comparing
Pickett isn’t Burrow, and that isn’t the end of the world. He can still carve out a strong career even if he doesn’t fall into the elite level that Burrow is. If you really want to find a comparison for Pickett, Andy Dalton makes a lot more sense. I know fans will cringe at that name, but Dalton is the far better pro comparison.
Dalton averaged a 6.2 AY/A as a rookie, and while that is still notably higher than Pickett, he kept that number pretty consistent. He has averaged in the low 200s for yards per game, and that seems like that will be Pickett’s sweet spot considering he struggled to throw for more than 200 yards in most games.
While daydreaming of Pickett becoming a Burrow-like quarterback is nice, there aren’t enough comparisons there for me to buy it. Unless Pickett really evolves his game in year two, his ceiling seems far lower. So please, stop comparing the two, as it is silly to expect Pickett to turn into the caliber of quarterback that Burrow has become.