If I had told you that the Pittsburgh Steelers would be 2-1 to begin the season while ranking 12th in scoring offense, you probably would have signed up for this. There were a lot of moving pieces on offense this year, none bigger than quarterback Aaron Rodgers. But the Rodgers experiment isn't turning out to be the huge offensive lift fans were hoping for.
Looking only at the box score numbers, you'd think that Rodgers is off to an excellent start. The 41-year-old quarterback already has seven passing touchdowns compared to three interceptions in his first three games while leading the Steelers to a respectable 24.0 points per game.
However, the box score numbers don't begin to tell half of the story.
Sam Hoppen, an NFL data scientist at ESPN Bet, put together a graphic of every quarterback's EPA in expected pass situations. Rodgers ranks 22nd in the NFL entering Week 4 with a negative EPA per play, behind players like Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyrod Taylor, and Bo Nix.
This means that, when teams expect the Steelers to throw the ball in obvious passing situations, Rodgers has not been efficient. But this isn't the only stat that exposes Rodgers' shortcomings early in the 2025 season.
Aaron Rodgers isn't living up to expectations with the Pittsburgh Steelers
In addition to having a poor EPA in expected passing situations, Rodgers has also graded out poorly early in the season from Pro Football Focus. The 21-year veteran is coming off a game against the New England Patriots in which he earned just a 34.8 overall PFF grade—the worst of any player on either side of the football for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.
On the season, Rodgers has an overall PFF grade of just 48.6. This has been good for just 35th among 36 qualifying quarterbacks—and considering there are only 32 NFL teams, this is as bad as it gets. And at this rate, Rodgers might be one bad game away from his PFF grade falling below his age (41.8), which is a nearly impossible feat for most NFL players.
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However, it's not just advanced stats that suggest Rodgers is playing poorly. The Steelers quarterback ranks 22nd in the NFL in QBR (44.8), and the Steelers are just 16th in yards per pass attempt (6.8). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's offense ranks 30th in yards per game (247.0) and 26th in yards per play (4.6).
It's still possible Aaron Rodgers could turn things around as the season goes on, but statistics are proving that he's been far from the quarterback the Pittsburgh Steelers needed.