After T.J. Watt finished second place in Defensive Player of the Year voting to Myles Garrett in 2023, it was no surprise to see him as a favorite to land the award before the 2024 season even started. The Steelers star fell short despite recording 19.0 sacks, 36 quarterback hits, four forced fumbles, and a defensive touchdown last season.
Five weeks into the year, Watt started to run away from the competition. Lions' budding superstar Aidan Hutchinson suffered a brutal season-ending leg injury while Cowboys' All-Pro Micah Parsons missed four games early in the year.
This left Watt in a one-man race... until now.
The Steelers outperformed expectations early in the season. Despite Watt's dip in production, Pittsburgh's ability to go 8-2 in their first 10 games saw Watt with a lead in the DPOY race that couldn't be breached.
That's when things started to unravel. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers are 2-2, with a sloppy Thursday Night Football loss against the now 3-11 Browns and a dismal showing against the Eagles in Philadelphia. Because of this, the DPOY race is far from over.
As the Steelers struggled the Denver Broncos have been taking care of business — winning four straight games at the hands of their defense. Denver's top defenders — cornerback Pat Surtain II and edge rusher Nik Bonitto — have skyrocketed in the latest Defensive Player of the Year odds.
Entering Week 16, Watt still leads the pack with -160 odds to bring home the 2024 DPOY award, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. However, Surtain went from a long shot to win the award up to second place with odds of +340. Meanwhile, his teammate, Bonitto, has risen to +650 odds.
Updated DPOY odds after entering Week 16, via @FDSportsbook:
— Tommy Jaggi (@TommyJaggi) December 17, 2024
T.J. Watt -160
Pat Surtain II: +340
Nik Bonitto: +650
Will Anderson Jr.: +1400
Jonathan Greenard: +2600
Danielle Hunter: +2600
Surtain and Bonitto get a huge odds boost after Week 15, but Watt still leads.
Rounding out the top DPOY odds are Will Anderson Jr. (+1400) and Danielle Hunter (+2600) of the Houston Texans as well as Jonathan Greenard (+2600) of the Minnesota Vikings.
T.J. Watt's DPOY odds hinge on Steelers' late-season success
Like it or not, team records are considered when the Associated Press votes on NFL honors. For this very reason, players like Myles Garrett and Dexter Lawrence are hardly in consideration. Despite another dominant season, Garrett has just +3300 odds on a 3-11 team, while Lawrence's odds are no longer even listed among the top 24 because of the Giants' dismal 2-12 record.
Though the Steelers have already cashed their ticket into the playoffs this year, a meltdown late in the season could have devastating effects on Watt's DPOY odds. If the Steelers were to lose three of their final four games (beginning with their ugly loss to the Eagles), NFL honors voters could cast their vote for a player on a hotter team.
So how should you be rooting down the stretch?
If you want to see T.J. Watt add to his legendary career and cement his name among the few elite players in NFL history with multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards, you should be rooting for the demise of the Broncos down the stretch.
Denver has games against the Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs remaining. If this team collapses to close out the year, it will greatly affect DPOY odds for Surtain and Bonitto, just as a Steelers collapse would negatively impact Watt's chances of taking home the award.
Given his unrivaled résumé and the fact that he narrowly fell short of the award in 2023, Watt is still the favorite to be the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year. But a lot can change in three weeks, and if the Steelers don't finish strong, this competition could come down to the wire.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.