There's no getting around it: the Pittsburgh Steelers need a franchise quarterback. Over the past three seasons, Mike Tomlin and the front office pressed their luck by settling for an underwhelming QB prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft (Kenny Pickett) before resorting to signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields during the 2024 offseason.
Unfortunately, these efforts have all fallen short. We know that, eventually, this team will need to get a franchise quarterback in the NFL. But Tomlin is under the impression that a special QB is going to fall into his lap.
One of the biggest notes from Tomlin's postseason press conference was his comments on drafting a quarterback. When asked if his team needed a high pick to land a quarterback, the Steelers head coach pointed to Lamar Jackson (who went late in the first round) and Jalen Hurts (who was selected in the middle of the second round).
These are what we call outliers. But what does the evidence suggest?
Taking a quarterback on Day 2 of the NFL Draft shouldn't be an option this team should even consider. Over the past decade, Hurts was the only true success of all the QBs taken in the second or third round of the draft. Here's every quarterback taken on Day 2 of the NFL Draft over the past 10 years.
Quarterbacks selected on Day 2 of NFL Draft since 2015:
Player | Year | College | Round, Overall pick |
|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Grayson | 2015 | Colorado Sate | 3rd (75th pick) |
Sean Mannion | 2015 | Oregon State | 3rd (89th pick) |
Christian Hackenberg | 2016 | Penn State | 2nd (51st pick) |
Jacoby Brissett | 2016 | NC State | 3rd (91st pick) |
Cody Kessler | 2016 | USC | 3rd (93rd pick) |
DeShone Kizer | 2017 | Notre Dame | 2nd (52nd pick) |
Davis Webb | 2017 | California | 3rd (87th pick) |
C.J. Beathard | 2017 | Iowa | 3rd (104th pick) |
Mason Rudolph | 2018 | Oklahoma State | 3rd (76th pick) |
Drew Lock | 2019 | Missouri | 2nd (42nd pick) |
Will Grier | 2019 | West Virginia | 3rd (100th pick) |
Jalen Hurts | 2020 | Oklahoma | 2nd (53rd pick) |
Kyle Trask | 2021 | Florida | 2nd (64th pick) |
Kellen Mond | 2021 | Texas A&M | 3rd (66th pick) |
Davis Mills | 2021 | Stanford | 3rd (67th pick) |
Desmond Ridder | 2022 | Cincinnati | 3rd (74th pick) |
Malik Willis | 2022 | Liberty | 3rd (86th pick) |
Matt Corral | 2022 | Ole Miss | 3rd (94th pick) |
Will Levis | 2023 | Kentucky | 2nd (33rd pick) |
Hendon Hooker | 2023 | Tennessee | 3rd (58th pick) |
Of the 20 quarterbacks selected on Day 2 of the draft over the past decade, just one of them is currently starting in the NFL: Jalen Hurts. The Eagles' quarterback earned a lucrative second contract and has helped lead Philadelphia to its second Super Bowl appearance since becoming an NFL starter.
But this is the only true success story of the group.
Of the other 19 quarterbacks taken in the second and third rounds of the draft, most didn't even become quality backups in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett is the second most successful QB on this list despite being a journeyman backup and stop-gap starter on five NFL teams. Brissett has a career record of 19-34 in nine seasons.
Meanwhile, Davis Mills has a record of 5-19-1 as a starter, Will Levis went 5-16 in his first two seasons with the Titans, and C.J. Beathard has a career record of 3-10 despite starting 12 of 13 games on Kyle Shanahan's offense in San Francisco.
Based on NFL resumes, Mason Rudolph is the third-best quarterback of the 20 QBs selected on Day 2 of the draft over the past 10 years. Talk about a low bar. In 2023, Rudolph was the third-string quarterback to Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky for most of the season.
Steelers shouldn't waste draft picks on a Day 2 QB
Trends are meant to be broken and this dismal streak won't continue forever. However, only one quarterback out of 20 has turned out to be a franchise signal-caller on Day 2 of the draft over the past decade, why should the Steelers believe their selection would turn out any different?
Sure, you can find a developmental quarterback or a career backup in the second and third rounds of the draft, but is that the best use of spending early draft capital? If that's all you're looking for, why not sign a proven commodity with experience in free agency?
To land a franchise quarterback, the Steelers need to dream bigger. Don't settle for scraps in the second and third rounds of the draft when the top players from the class are already off the board. Instead, make a splash play in the draft to move up for a guy you believe could be the face of your franchise.
The evidence is overwhelming against burning draft capital on a quarterback on Day 2, and the Steelers would be foolish to follow suit.