Over the years, it's been easy to pinpoint the Pittsburgh Steelers' draft trends that hold the most weight. With a new head coach, the pre-draft scouting trail looked different this year, and Mike McCarthy's presence could impact the NFL Draft. But if recent trends hold true, the Steelers' best-case target in Round 1 is already crystal clear.
On Wednesday, NFL front offices put a wrap on their pre-draft visits. Pittsburgh's brass used all 30 visits this year (including three local visits).
From my count, there are just six prospects the Steelers could take in Round 1 whom they met with for 30 visits: Utah OT Spencer Fano, Penn State OG Olaivavega Ioane, Washington WR Denzel Boston, USC WR Makai Lemon, Toledo SAF Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, and San Diego State CB Chris Johnson.
Why does this matter? The answer is simple—five straight first-round picks of the Steelers have been players they met with for pre-draft visits. If these trends continue, Pittsburgh's top draft choice is narrowed down to one of the aforementioned names.
With the 30-visit list complete, the best case scenario for Pittsburgh in Round 1 is easy to spot.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' best-case scenario in Round 1 is landing Vega Ioane at pick No. 21
Assuming their recent draft trends hold true, and Pittsburgh only selects from their 30-visit list in Round 1, the best-case scenario is landing Vega Ioane organically with their original first-round pick.
This isn't to say that stumbling upon Makai Lemon or Spencer Fano would be worse, but the likelihood of that happening is extremely slim.
According to Underdog's draft availability odds, there is just a 2% chance that Lemon is on the board at pick No. 21. Likewise, there's a grim 5% chance that Fano is on the board when the Steelers are on the clock with their top pick. These odds suggest that landing one of these two prospects would almost certainly require some sort of trade-up scenario.
Meanwhile, there's a 15% chance that Ioane is on the board when the Steelers are on the clock. This is the best player they have a chance to snag organically without a trade-up. Ioane is considered a consensus better prospect than the Round 1 options they've met with, such as Denzel Boston, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, and Chris Johnson.
While landing Lemon would feel like a dream pick, the Steelers would likely have to give up their original first-round pick and maybe a second or third-round pick to move within range to select the USC star.
Thus, standing pat and taking Ioane, if he falls, would be the best-case scenario for Pittsburgh. They would be getting a top-15 player in the class at an important positional need without having to package draft capital.
If these six players prove to be the only prospects the Pittsburgh Steelers are eying in Round 1, I think most fans would sign up for Vega Ioane at pick No. 21 in a heartbeat if he manages to slide that far.
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