The NFL’s 2025 playoff picture is coming into focus, and thankfully, the Pittsburgh Steelers are doing exactly what they need to do to be in the field in three weeks. With their win over the Detroit Lions and the Baltimore Ravens' loss to the New England Patriots, the Steelers are primed to take the AFC North and the 4-seed in the postseason.
With Mike Tomlin picking up his 19th consecutive winning season in Detroit, and a spot in the postseason near a certainty, all of the Steelers' fans’ collective focus is on the team winning a playoff game. Despite all of Tomlin’s regular-season success, Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016.
Fans are more than fed up with enduring the longest playoff win drought in franchise history during the Super Bowl era, so everything rides on that first-round playoff game. But who will the Steelers face off against in the Wild Card round?
Pittsburgh Steelers see familiar challenge emerging in playoff projections
Of course, with two weeks left in the regular season, a lot can happen, though for Pittsburgh, things are fairly straightforward. The Steelers have a 98% chance of claiming the 4-seed, less than 1% chance of moving up to the 3-seed. However, Pittsburgh can’t make the playoffs without winning the AFC North.
As for their potential first-round opponent, currently, the math predicts that the Steelers should prepare for a rematch against the Buffalo Bills. According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Bills have a 53% chance of claiming the 5-seed, which would send them back to Pittsburgh for a Week 13 rematch.
After Week 16, the current 5-seed is the Los Angeles Chargers, who hold a tiebreaker over Buffalo. However, the Chargers play the Houston Texans, the current 7-seed, and the Denver Broncos, the 1-seed, to close out the regular season. Buffalo closes out with Philadelphia and then the New York Jets, so it seems more likely for Buffalo to come out on top, though anything could happen.
READ MORE: It only took one game for Steelers' star tandem to cure offensive woes
Of course, the Steelers haven’t lost since the Buffalo Bills thumped them at home 26-7 four weeks ago. In that game, the Bills ran for an Acrisure Stadium opponent record 249 yards, and Buffalo has carried that momentum on the ground since to build a four-game winning streak. Steelers fans rained down chants calling for Tomlin’s firing near the end of the game, but that appears to have lit a fire under the embattled coach and his veteran-led roster in the aftermath.
A rematch with Buffalo sounds daunting, but Buffalo’s defensive inconsistencies and their near-non-existent downfield passing game are heavy concerns for the Bills heading into the postseason. Pittsburgh’s run defense has already rebounded, thanks in large part to the return of rookie Derrick Harmon to the defensive front.
On top of that, the Bills haven’t won a road playoff game since 1993, so they carry their own style of historical postseason pressure into such a matchup, too. If Pittsburgh can carry its current confidence into the postseason and correct its mistakes from the first meeting with Buffalo, the Steelers might just be able to exact some revenge for the record-setting performance they allowed back in November.