Predicting which Steelers sophomores will surge or slump in second season

The Steelers 2023 draft class enters the season still completely intact, and almost every player seems poised for a bigger role this year than last. Given this team's overall struggles and the number of new names, getting some good returns on last year's draft class will be important. It is a big year for every sophomore player.

That said, some players have shown more than others, while others are naturally in a better position than some of their second-year players. Sophomore seasons are typically important. While you will have late bloomers in the NFL, you usually see some sort of development from year one to two. This leads to the second-year surge in the best-case scenario.

Other times, you have major slumps that make you question whether the pick was worth it. A bad sophomore season doesn’t guarantee bust status, but it can lead to the Steelers looking for your replacement sooner than they had hoped. Here is my prediction for every second-year layer on the roster and if they will surge or slump this year.

Steelers 2023 1st round pick: Broderick Jones

It looked like a dream come true when the Steelers initially landed Broderick Jones in the draft. The team was in desperate need of some tackle talent, and Jones had arguably the highest upside in the class. He was extremely unproven though, and the expectation was for him to need some time to develop and turn those traits into on-the-field production.

He sat for most of the season before being shoehorned in at right tackle, an unnatural position for him. The results as a rookie were fine enough. He looked like a mauling run blocker that could use his athleticism in space. His pass blocking was pretty poor overall, but he was a small upgrade over what the Steelers had. Again, the focus was on the long-term with Jones.

This offseason hasn’t been a good showing so far. Jones has continued to see the team not commit him to one side or the other, and his play in the preseason, specifically in the first two games, was abysmal. At this point, Dan Moore could realistically be playing over him at left tackle given just how bad Jones looked.

Unless he completely falls off a cliff this season I don’t think we will have a firm answer to what Jones is by the end of the year. I expect some lumps and some streaks of good play, but I am equally convinced that he will still look raw after the 2024 season. With most fans expecting some noted improvements in his game, I think he ultimately disappoints as a sophomore.

2024 Prediction: Slump

Steelers 2023 2nd round pick: Joey Porter Jr.

It seemed like fate when Joey Porter fell to the Steelers in the second round. Many had the team taking him in the first round, and one has to wonder if he would have been the plan had all of the tackles already been off the board. It certainly meant that he entered his rookie season with a chip on his shoulder.

Like Jones, it took a while for Porter to see the field, but over the back half of the year he was the team’s best cornerback, and it wasn’t particularly close. He enters the year with a better running mate and an improved front seven ahead of him. All signs point to a breakout year for Porter.

I do think fans are overestimating his overall impact, as he will certainly take some lumps in year two. As well, he still looked grabby in the preseason, so penalties could kill him. That said, all factors point to him having a really strong second season, even if I don’t see him getting vaulted into the top-five cornerback conversation.

2024 Prediction: Surge

Steelers 2023 2nd round pick: Keeanu Benton

Of all of the names on this list, I think Keeanu Benton has the best shot at breaking out this season. While he is predominantly a nose tackle, his impressive tape from last year warrants more opportunities in year two. At a bare minimum, he won’t be running as the second-team nose tackle like he was early last year.

Benton was a quiet giant in year one. While he didn’t pop on the stats sheet, he was consistently making the most impact every week of the rookie class. He enters year two looking stronger and with a better pass-rush plan at his disposal. It was only the preseason, but his snaps this year so far looked dominant.

Benton is in store for a big year two. I don’t think it is out of the question that he is second along the defensive line in sacks if given the opportunity, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he is close to topping Cameron Heyward when it is all said and done. Assuming his run defense stays strong, you could be looking at a monster second year for Benton.

2024 Prediction: Surge

Steelers 2023 3rd round pick: Darnell Washington

I really like Darnell Washington’s fit in this offense. He was a raw tight end in college as a receiver, but he used his immense size to serve as a great blocker. It took a while during his rookie season, but Washington finally caught his groove as a blocker at least at the end of last season.

My hope in year two for a former third-round pick is for Washington to improve as a receiver. While he will never become a primary passing threat, and that is ok, you want a pick that high to contribute more through the air. Given his size and Arthur Smith's affinity for the tight-end position, it would be nice to see him become a viable threat through the air and a red-zone target.

Unfortunately, the questions at quarterback could ultimately impact him. The hope is that improved quarterback play will yield more opportunities for Washington, but that isn’t a sure thing. The offense could easily fall flat on its head, and if the red zone is his main way of surging this year, he could end up disappointing. That said, I do expect him to be a consistently better blocker, so he has that going for him.

2024 Prediction: Slump

Steelers 2023 4th round pick: Nick Herbig

One of the biggest surprises from the 2023 draft class has to be Nick Herbig. I was as skeptical of him and his ability to stay as an edge rusher as anyone, but he has proven to be an exception to the usual size rules. He looked great in limited action as a rookie and picked up where he left off during the preseason.

Now, he is the clear top backup and should see a healthy rotation as a relief to both of the starters. Expectations seem mixed for him. Some fans think he is going to overtake Alex Highsmith for a starting role (he won’t) while others are skeptical of him playing more snaps, thus leading him to play less fresh.

While I doubt he pushes for double-digit sacks, I think five is a realistic base for him. I’m less concerned about his overall sacks and just want a player that doesn’t drop the overall defensive quality when he comes in. You had that last year with Markus Golden and it allows the starters to stay fresh. I think he does that while also getting a handful of sacks, so he seems like a surge candidate.

2024 Prediction: Surge

Steelers 2023 7th round pick: Cory Trice

On one hand, Cory Trice just seeing the field would indicate that he is having a surge year considering the fact that he missed his entire rookie season with an injury. On the other hand, he seems to have some high expectations following two good training camp performances. He is a hard player to figure out right now.

He seems to have nailed down the third outside cornerback roll and could see some work in subpackage looks. While special teams is still up in the air, he failed to impress there. I don’t see that changing much over the season. While I have hopes for him long term, I don’t see the 2024 season being overly fruitful for him.

My guess is that he has some hot and cold plays when called upon, and if he is needed for an extended amount of time, he could be picked on. This is essentially his rookie season, and I would expect him to take his lumps. I’m skeptical, and I think when we do see him, his play won’t wow anyone quite yet.

2024 Prediction: Slump

Steelers 2023 7th round pick: Spencer Anderson

The most unknown and unheralded name from the 2023 draft class has one of the best opportunities to stake his claim as a potential starter. Isaac Seumalo will miss the first few weeks of the season with an injury, and while no official word is in as to who will start in his place, Spencer Anderson is the technical backup left guard and would make sense to fill in.

Anderson barely played a year ago, but he has looked both talented and versatile in both of his training camps with the Steelers. His best fit is along the interior though, and the team kept him almost exclusively at guard this year. He did enough last year to earn a role despite a deep interior line room and quickly cemented himself as a roster lock this offseason.

While everyone is clamoring for Mason McCormick, I think Anderson will get the first crack at replacing Seumalo. Even if he doesn’t, with Nate Herbig out for the year, Anderson could get more looks as a backup. I think he puts the two good training camps to use and looks good, throwing his name into the potential starter conversation long-term at guard.

2024 Prediction: Surge