Steelers stat projections: George Pickens could flirt with Pro Bowl numbers in 2023

You would be hard-pressed to find a Pittsburgh Steelers fan who was disappointed in George Pickens' performance as a rookie in 2022. In his first NFL season, Pickens got fans on their feet with some remarkable catches in traffic.

Pickens finished his rookie year earning 52 receptions on 84 targets for 801 yards and 4 touchdowns, per Pro Football Reference. His impressive 9.5 yards per reception ranked 13th among NFL receivers, and Pickens had one of the best explosive play rates in the league at the age of 21 last year.

Now fans are raising the bar high for Pickens, and it's not hard to see why. The young receiver and former five-star recruit is overflowing with talent. This was on display often during training camp this year, and it was clear to see that there's a talent gap between him and the next best receiver on the team.

During the 2023 preseason, Pickens caught all 3 of his targets for an impressive 76 yards and a touchdown (while coming up just inches short of a second score on an acrobatic catch). In limited usage, the Steelers receiver was spectacular, but will it translate to a second-year leap? Here are my stat projections for George Pickens in 2023.

Steelers stat projections 2023: WR George Pickens

• 68 receptions
• 111 targets
• 1,025 receiving yards
• 8 touchdowns
• 62.3% catch rate
• 9.2 yards per target

We have to assume that the volume is going to go up for George Pickens significantly in his second season in 2023. With a combination of Mitch Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett at the helm in 2022, Pickens managed just 84 targets.

Assuming that Pickens is healthy for a 17-game season, this is a number that is guaranteed to go up. Last year, Diontae Johnson earned a whopping 147 targets, and we would imagine that we will see a bit of a paradigm shift this year.

Pickens has earned these targets, based on everything we have seen dating back to last year. with his added looks, I project that Pickens will finish with 68 receptions for 1,025 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. This stat line would be very similar to what Bengals WR Tee Higgins earned in 2022.

According to ESPN's fantasy projections, Pickens is expected to earn just 845 yards and 5 touchdowns this year. This is hardly fair, and I think they are really lowballing what he will do. These projections include just 44 more yards and 1 more touchdown than what Pickens did as a raw rookie in 2022. I think the bar should be raised higher.

Though the plan is for the Pittsburgh Steelers to run the football a lot this year, I still think that Pickens will carve out a big role in the passing game. Pickens isn't about to lead the league in receiving yards, but by the end of the season, he could be flirting with Pro Bowl consideration -- especially if he cracks 1,000 receiving yards and ends up with close to double-digit touchdowns.

Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have the over/under for Pickens' receiving yards in 2023 set at a mere 750.5 yards. We are hammering the over on this bet. There's no reason to expect that he won't surpass this unless he misses multiple games due to injuries.